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Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by Fricken on Thursday September 13, 2018 @03:47PM (#17981822)
From Sterling Anderson, former director of Autopilot who oversaw the implementation of HW2:

>Perception is a game of statistics.Crudely speaking, if we have three independent modalities with epsilon miss-detection-rates and we combine them we can achieve an epsilon³ rate in perception. In practice, relatively orthogonal failure modes won’t achieve that level of benefit, however, an error every million miles can get boosted to an error every billion miles. It is extremely difficult to achieve this level of accuracy with a single modality alone.

>Different sensor modalities have different strengths and weaknesses; thus, incorporating multiple modalities drives orders of magnitude improvements in the reliability of the system. Cameras suffer from difficulty in low-light and high dynamic range scenarios; radars suffer from limited resolution and artifacts due to multi-path and doppler ambiguity; lidars “see” obscurants.

https://medium.com/aurora-blog/auroras-approach-to-developme...

Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by salty_biscuits on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:49PM (#17982433)
He is basically just saying that the errors need to be independent, so you can get that with different capture mechanisms. I think that is wrong. For example, small, fast and poorly reflective will have similar detection performance for lidar and cameras. I think that the real problem is getting consistent statistical estimators and fusing them at a useful update rate. Has anyone seen the lidar from the uber crash? It would be interesting to see if a person could "tell" that the poor pedestrian wasn't an artifact quickly from lidar alone.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by Fricken on Thursday September 13, 2018 @05:24PM (#17982743)
The radar, Lidar and cameras on the Uber that struck Elaine Herzberg all detected her, it wasn't a sensor failure that led to her death, it was a software failure, the autonomous OS tuned to not respond to positives below a certain threshold.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by dstroot on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:01PM (#17981974)
First, thanks for sharing this! Second - based on the language used I can’t tell if he is saying Tesla’s camera and Radar approach will work, or that it won’t. The only thing that I pulled out was that if we increase the types of sensors we get better results because they have different strengths and weakenesses.
Re:Driverless Hype Collides with Merciless Reality by Fricken on Thursday September 13, 2018 @04:16PM (#17982124)
Sterling does believe cameras may someday be good enough, but I'm personally of the belief that Lidar will get cheap before vision gets good, and as such there's no good reason to not have the extra redundancy.