Re:Manhattan DA's office drops more than 3,000 open marijuan...
by mike10010100 on Thursday September 13, 2018 @09:57AM
(#17978625)
Precisely. Her value stems from her efforts to shift the Overton window, not from the chance she will win.
Re:Manhattan DA's office drops more than 3,000 open marijuan...
by charmides on Thursday September 13, 2018 @01:34AM
(#17976301)
I have not found much opportunity on PredictIt to exploit that sort of thing. Seems like most people there attempt to make rational investments.
Re:Manhattan DA's office drops more than 3,000 open marijuan...
by creaghpatr on Thursday September 13, 2018 @10:23AM
(#17978804)
You need at least a 3x return opportunity to make it worth the time. They charge a 10% vig and a processing fee to draw your winnings, plus you get taxed as gambling winnings.
However, that's often not the point. If you are progressive (conservative) there is a strong incentive to challenge incumbents on your own side because any impact you have on the ideas discussed is likely to work in your favor; and indeed it's possible the incumbent agrees with you on those issues but just wants political cover to acquiesce. So I'm not really troubled if Cuomo happens to discover a more progressive streak or makes some concessions even though he's going to pulverize her come polling day.
I think it would be accurate to say that Nixon has run an unusually strong campaign and done an unusually good job of calling attention to real issues, even knowing she has no chance of winning and isn't a serious candidate by that standard.
[Note: I am not a resident of NY State and can't legally vote in the state I live in.]