> a small country which doesn't belong to any international agreements

Look at the map of ITU member states [1] and tell me where you'll find this spacefaring nation.

[1] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/33/Member_s...

Looks like Taiwan is not an ITU member and has a space program, several active satellites and their own launch vehicle in the works.

> Taiwan is not an ITU member

"Taiwan, Province of China, is not listed separately in the UN M49 but included in China." [1]. It is an unofficial member, however, which is why you can dial +886 to get to Taiwan [2]. Practically speaking, with the U.S. providing Taiwan its security umbrella, enforcement mechanisms for a Taiwanese breach of ITU protocol would be straightforward.

[1] https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/definitions/re...

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_Taiwan#Te...

And their space program is more or less American.

Taking your map, let's imagine I create a company in Western Sahara and launch a satellite from there. What would happen?

> let's imagine I create a company in Western Sahara and launch a satellite from there. What would happen?

If you're launching out of Western Sahara, it strongly implies (a) you're doing something naughty and (b) procured your equipment through illicit channels. The reasoning behind (a) is you'd spend vastly more on (b) trying to do this out of Western Sahara than you ever would on compliance in an ITU-member nation. The reasoning behind (b) is export controls.

I thus presume the response would be military (i.e. detainment, not blowing things up). This would probably be the responsibility of whomever you're a citizen of, or whomever gets angry enough about you. (In Western Sahara, probably NATO, Algeria or Morocco.) The more realistic concern is someone bribing officials in an ITU member state.

If you actually launch without, somehow, anyone knowing about you and having "conversations" with you beforehand, then it depends on the direction in which you launch. If you launch prograde, it'll most likely be shot down by Russian interceptors. If you launch retrograde, it'll most likely be shot down by American interceptors.

A polite conversation with host country leadership?

I'm fair certain the "authorities" in that area of the world would not be "polite" under the circumstances that hadrien01 postulates.

A small country won’t be able to launch a satellite or to afford it.

There are 12 countries capable of launching satellites and technically it’s more like 10 since Iran and North Korea can’t launch anything substantial just yet.

And those two which are the closest thing you can have to a space launch capable “rogue” nation have the most interest to actually behave since they are essentially launching a ballistic missile with a small payload and if they do it without notice well some countries in their vicinity might not wait long enough to find out what it is.

> Iran and North Korea can’t launch anything substantial just yet

Iran and North Korea are both ITU members.

The other comments speak to the likelihood that such a thing is possible, but if you put that aside, the direct answer is no -- if some small country did develop the capability, there is nobody with the authority to stop them. Yet.

Because we have international agreements in order to establish behavior that is best for all countries involved. And there would likely be diplomatic solutions presented to bring any new spacefaring nations into agreement with everyone else.

I think 'dogma1138 still gives the correct answer for the main question. An orbital-capable rocket is also an ICBM, so at any point on the road from no rockets to orbital capability, you'd have first neighbours and then everyone else asking questions and exerting serious diplomatic pressure on that country.