Re:Poaching Tesla
by AnthonyMouse on Sunday September 09, 2018 @04:10PM
(#17947509)
Yes, of course, it's all back of the envelope. Assume the future numbers are in net present value. Or assign some non-zero value to the 45% probability that they "fail" in the sense of losing value, since it presumably wouldn't be a 100% write off even then.
No sane investor will pay $45 for a 40% chance of $45 and 15% chance of $180 in 8 or 10 years.
(I agree with your premise, but the numbers need to be larger such that their present value, not future value solves.)