I hope not. I hope the car that I paid for becomes simpler, so that I can repair it myself or at a local shop. That would also mean that I get to own the software the car runs. It's sad when actually owning something sounds like an insane fever dream.

It may become simpler in some regards (drive train with fewer moving parts) but I think you can take your mind off the "do it yourself" part. The SW and electronics are always proprietary with little chance you'll ever (legally) have access to them. If anything their situation will get a lot worse as "always connected" cars become more common. Most likely trying to change/mod anything there will be detected and trigger some reaction that could go all the way to flagging your car as no longer street legal.

And what's left for you to repair? The simplicity you ask for will be introduced exactly where these home repairs used to happen: oil, filters, spark-plugs, a hose here, a cap there, etc. But the rest of the car stays mostly the same or gets even more complex. Most mechanical parts that aren't touched by the transition from ICE to electric motor could stay the same (suspensions, brakes), while the interior electronics will become more or less the equivalent of today's smartphones. Too complex for most people to try fixing themselves.

Hmm, a car that phones home to tattle on the owner? I forsee a strong future market for 'classic' vehicles. And 'disconnect service', ha!

That's a good point about most of the home repairs we do being replaced by... not having those parts in the first place.

The idea that you'd even have a personal self-driving car is probably an insane fever dream already. We seem to be going in a direction where you'll hail cars as needed from a fleet someone else owns.

To me maintaining it is a hassle. I don't care about fixing it, I explicitly do not want to fix it, I also don't care about the software it runs. A car is a tool like a stove to me, I only care that the stove works. Fixing or maintaining it is not in any way interesting or worthwhile it's just a means to get from A to B. If there is transit I would take that instead, but if I have to own a car I would rather own one that simply works and otherwise stays out of my way and is not a hassle.

Who says that you need to own it either? Perhaps you just subscribe to a car service like zipcar or somesuch and you text msg the car to drive over to you when you need it, and when it's not being used or books it goes off to get itself serviced and whatnot. Sounds great to me.

"It's sad when actually owning something sounds like an insane fever dream."

That's where it's going, my friend!

Some people really think so. Take a step back and look at Average Joe, and I think privately owned vehicles aren't going away. Ever.

At that point it will be pointless to even own the car. Might as well just subscribe to 'Mercedes Prime' for $500/month and have their automated vehicles available on demand.

Exactly. The entire industry realizes the shift to a subscription is coming and getting here fast.

As a city dweller I got rid of owning a car in 2015. Now I just hop in someone elses car using a ride sharing app if I'm going a short distance. If I am going a long distance I can rent someone elses car, either from a company that owns a fleet or from an individual using Turo / GetAround.

In SF you can rent a car to drive somewhere using Uber's GetAround integration for as little as $8/hour. Crazy.

The rental price quoted above (500USD/month) is probably near the average price I’ve paid to buy a car... I hope subscription is kind of less than this otherwise it seems like pretty bad news for the average consumer.

The pilot programs we see now are sort of a month-to-month lease and include maintenance and periodic vehicle swaps from a pool, much like you can often swap your short-term rental in the midst of a contract. That might appeal to the type of driver who doesn't keep their car in immaculate condition for the duration of their lease or ownership.

I would expect to see market segmentation not only by model but by average car age and care standards, so the fleet operator can potentially demote cars from one tier to another to get more service life out of them. I imagine you will see budget subscriptions that are more likely drawing from a pool of 3-6 year old cars and more premium subscriptions that are drawing from a pool of almost new cars, as well as potential tiers in between.

Why is it bad news?

I have no insurance to pay.

I have no fuel costs to pay.

I have no parking costs to pay.

I have no maintenance costs to pay.

I have a car whenever I want, for an affordable price, that is relatively modern, sometimes with a driver and sometimes I drive myself.

The true cost of a vehicle is much higher than the car payment.

On the other hand you've now added a whole new layer of friction to using a car. Sure, in theory you'll just hit a button on an app and a car will show up in a few minutes, and it's only a minor inconvenience. But what happens if there is a bug in the software? Or if your account at the giant fleet company gets suspended out of the blue for an opaque reason?

There's also the loss of being able to buy and customize a car that's exactly what the end user wants. This doesn't matter at all to a lot of drivers, but matters a great deal to some.

What happens when I lose my key?

What happens when I drink too much before needing to go home?

What happens if my car gets hit in the parking lot or broken into and I need to deal with calling the cops and trying to obtain the security camera footage before leaving?

The truth is no solution is without problems.

The transportation as a service model has more pros for me than cons. Plus it would mean fewer cars on the road overall and less need for parking spaces when autonomous vehicles can take us places and no longer need to be parked to wait for us.

Your second argument is akin to people wanting to build a house instead of financing and buying an existing house.

For alot of car buying folks, the financing and available inventory determines the 'want'.

Remember, not everyone lives near a city center...

This is true but becoming less true over time.

Though it will be interesting to see if self-driving cars reverse that trend. If a long commute becomes a pleasurable chunk of me-time instead of a grueling slog staring at the brake lights in front of you, maybe people won't place such a premium on living close to work.

for density in cities to increase, more public transport is simply needed.

Cars are a terrible way to get around in a crowded city. The city is far too dense to drive easily, cars take up way too much precious space and are huge increasers of smog.

In germany and other european cities, they already started banning diesel and other high pollution vechiles from entering major city centers because of both smog and congestion issues.

This kind of ruling will only increase.

EVs will address some of these objections. Autonomous driving will take care of the rest.

Uber and Lyft already have subscription plans. This is exactly the direction car transportation is already headed, at least for many drives.

So does Volvo. https://www.volvocars.com/us/shopping-tools/purchase/care-by...

This is just leasing with a different name, non-negotiable price, and insurance baked in. In many ways that's an improvement but it's disingenuous for Volvo to call it a subscription.