News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by newfocogi on Monday August 27, 2018 @02:47PM (#17853390)
I am surprised Toyota would want to work with Uber at this point - it seems Uber's ills are piling up faster than their successes. Could this be a desperation play where if Toyota doesn't partner up with somebody, they won't have a part in a driverless future that looks like it will belong to Waymo and friends?
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by giancarlostoro on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:40PM (#17853814)
I wish they had invested 500 million into buying a self-driving startup or something instead. Or just opening up a new AI branch for Toyota / Lexus. It's not like people en masse are driving around in self driving cars while asleep at the wheel yet so the race for self-driving is still a turtle race. They have the resources imho to do great things, maybe they're afraid after the software issues where cars would keep accelerating, but that shouldn't stop them from getting in on the game.

Ah well, I'm nobody anyway, just a guy hungry to see tech companies compete and see less of tech being monopolized between a few companies.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by skipwalker on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:24PM (#17854192)
The evidence that there actually were any software issues related to unintended acceleration is pretty tenuous. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9311_Toyota_vehicle...

"Driver error or pedal misapplication was found responsible for most of the incidents.[28] The report ended stating, "Our conclusion is Toyota's problems were mechanical, not electrical." This included sticking accelerator pedals, and pedals caught under floor mats."

And Malcolm Gladwell's podcast about the subject, http://revisionisthistory.com/episodes/08-blame-game

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by donbright on Monday August 27, 2018 @07:33PM (#17855406)
That doesn't make me trust them or their software / electrical team.

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-fi-toyota-prius-i...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Barr_(software_enginee...

T-SB-0172-09

I love the concept of electrical cars but that has to come with a leap forward in software quality and electrical engineering quality, which I am not really seeing happen.

The idea of Quality is still, basically, alien in the software field. Some of that can be blamed on 'the marketplace' but then again, I believe that if people are going to call themselves "Engineers" they should take up that old mantle of the public responsibility inherent in that title, as it was developed after much blood and horror was spilled over the failed bridges and railroads of the 19th century.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by tostitos1979 on Monday August 27, 2018 @05:22PM (#17854670)
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by giancarlostoro on Monday August 27, 2018 @05:32PM (#17854747)
Yeah I remember reading about the bug here on HN sometime back. Maybe it was a mix of both mechanical issues and software issues to some extent? Not totally impossible. Heck wouldn't surprise me if one end said "don't worry about that, the software will handle it" and the other end said "don't worry about that, the hardware will handle that" kinda thing. But that's just me speculating, which does nobody any good.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by earle_wa on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @03:48AM (#17857198)
This video is an excellent analysis. I love the detail these investigators went into to uncover the software development practices during the early 2000's at Toyota. I really hope the automobile industry has taken this to heart and is creating more process around the software that our lives depend on.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by earle_wa on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @03:43AM (#17857175)
I'm disappointed in Malcom Gladwell's analysis of this situation. His advice is dangerous and should be corrected. Here is a response to his piece that is well laid out. http://www.safetyresearch.net/blog/articles/tipping-point
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by clu1590 on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:04PM (#17854027)
They already have Toyota Research Institute, which they've invested 1 billion and got the Gill Pratt to head so I not sure why they want to team up with Uber now.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by hkmurakami on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:42PM (#17854360)
Hedging is very smart when there’s a huge future market at stake and you (Toyota) makes hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue per year.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by dunpeal on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:28PM (#17854217)
Unfortunately, it's not unusual for large corporations to invest millions or even billions into new R&D projects that yield no results.

This is especially true for high technology projects, and only becoming more of a risk as technology becomes more complex.

Can totally see it happening with something like self-driving cars, which is currently still a black art (remember how even Uber apparently needed to filch some IP from Waymo to even get its own project going?)

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by jquery on Monday August 27, 2018 @11:05PM (#17856308)
> remember how even Uber apparently needed to filch some IP from Waymo to even get its own project going?

Any proof? I see a settlement but not an admission or proof of guilt by Uber (not saying the former Google employee wasn't dirty). https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/9/16995254/waymo-uber-lawsui...

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by rebuilder on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @04:30AM (#17857356)
To digress a bit, if development and research is becoming more and more expensive, that would seem to imply increasing concentration of wealth is necessary to keep tech progress chugging along. To build pyramids, you have to have pharaohs...
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by r00fus on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:05PM (#17854035)
Spreading their bets? Buying into something else with Uber with the "self driving" being a front?
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by jaxn on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @01:12AM (#17856666)
This. Toyota knows our cars may go the way of our CD collections
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by qeternity on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:36PM (#17854298)
The skills necessary to "win" driverless cars (i.e. first/second place) are scarce as is, and ridiculously competitive. There will not be a long tail of driverless car companies, so it makes more sense to invest in an existing one that already has momentum, than to take up the challenge from scratch yourself.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by tashoecraft on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:52PM (#17853929)
You do know that there were no software issues that would keep cars accelerating, it was purely user error that got blown out of proportion?

http://revisionisthistory.com/episodes/08-blame-game

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by rebuilder on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @04:41AM (#17857391)
A rather stark rebuttal to Gladwell's analysis was posted elsewhere in this discussion:

http://www.safetyresearch.net/blog/articles/tipping-point

Edit: I see this is addressed in updates to the Revisionist History posting, in PDF form.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by newfocogi on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:49PM (#17853907)
I agree wholeheartedly with this sentiment, but I doubt they are letting the sticking accelerator software bug affect their positions on mobility in the future.

It appears that autonomous vehicle progress has an interesting moat where being good at it (the ability to drive a lot of miles) allows you to get better faster (drive more miles, more quickly). It is similar to a network effect, but with competency rather than number of connections.

Does anyone have a name for this type of advantage, or know of examples in other areas?

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by gwern on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:56PM (#17854473)
> It appears that autonomous vehicle progress has an interesting moat where being good at it (the ability to drive a lot of miles) allows you to get better faster (drive more miles, more quickly). It is similar to a network effect, but with competency rather than number of connections.

This doesn't seem to be the case. Look at the California disengagement statistics over cumulative miles - it looks like it's logarithmic or something, certainly not accelerating. Or look at Waymo in Arizona: they are driving, what, 70,000 miles per month and have racked up cumulative millions there already; if there really were some sort of compound interest or exponential improvement, then after they solved it well enough to go live and started racking up all those miles, self-driving cars should be on the verge of being solved & going global unless you postulate an enormous distance in between 'good enough to drive customers around Arizona' and 'good enough to drive customers around everywhere'.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by Yahivin on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:54PM (#17853945)
Compound interest, Pareto principle, Matthew Effect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_effect

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by sebleon on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:02PM (#17853526)
What ills do you speak of? The negative media narrative is not a full reflection of reality, rather what will attract the most eyeballs to monetize in this current media cycle.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by schaefer on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:45PM (#17853873)
Link to the report from Uber's fatal accident: https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Reports/...

To summarize what happened - Uber's autopilot makes decisions about when emergency braking is necessary. But the software was braking so often on public roads that overall it's driving was erratic.

So Uber knowingly disabled emergency braking in all cases.

This essentially turned the car into a missile on our public roads.

at the time of the accident, the autopilot detected the pedestrian. Calculated an imminent collision, and initiated emergency braking. Instead of actually breaking, the message to break simply went to the logs.

Combine that with a safety driver that was looking down at the console and not up at the road - and the fatality was the result.

--

It is completely beyond me why there isn't a battery of government saftey tests that vehicles with autopilot must pass before they get approved for use on our public roads.

How many times have you seen footage of a crash test dummy safely landing in an air bag? I want to see footage of crash test dummies getting pushed out in front of autopilot cars - and hopefully, never getting run down.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by plasticchris on Monday August 27, 2018 @05:50PM (#17854879)
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by hanniabu on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:06PM (#17854042)
> It is completely beyond me why there isn't a battery of government saftey tests that vehicles with autopilot must pass before they get approved for use on our public roads.

Because the inefficiencies of government are catching up with them as they'd rather right each other (different parties) rather than be productive and move the country forward.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by andygates on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @04:43AM (#17857404)
Technology always outpaces legislation. It's been that way since the telegraph and earlier. Legislators can't rule for stuff that isn't there, and tech changes spec all the time. Once there actually are fully-autonomous vehicles on public roads, the rules will come together. For now it's humans, just like every other vehicle.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by kartan on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:34PM (#17854283)
> inefficiencies of government

You misspelled lobbing.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by hammeiam on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:52PM (#17854432)
> You misspelled lobbing.

You misspelled lobbying.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by JamesBarney on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:13PM (#17853612)
Everything that came out after that last fatality points to Uber trailing everyone else in terms of functionality and sacrificing safety to appear further along.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by MBCook on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:04PM (#17853542)
Uber’s history outside of self-driving cars is hardly clean either.

My only guess would be Toyota is hoping that when Uber goes full self-driving they would use Toyota vehicles to do it.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by chriselles on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:40PM (#17853807)
That’s what I’m thinking.

A large investment in a potentially very large future customer.

Would Boeing invest money in an autonomous flight project by Southwest Airlines in hopes of locking in a Boeing 737 only fleet?

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by giancarlostoro on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:43PM (#17853840)
I hope this is the strategy instead of Toyota wanting to use Uber on their cars as the main source of AI. To this day Uber hasn't done anything to impress me and probably most people. Their corporate culture doesn't help either.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by smt88 on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:08PM (#17853572)
Their reckless (compared to Waymo) behavior with self-driving car testing is certainly more than negative press. It seems to reflect their entire culture.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by henryfjordan on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:13PM (#17853616)
Uber's self driving cars killed a woman...
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by sorokod on Monday August 27, 2018 @05:00PM (#17854511)
Self driving cars don't kill people. Programmers that program self driving cars kill people.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by mvpu on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:43PM (#17854361)
I think this isn't just about self-driving tech (I believe Toyota already partnered with Waymo on that given the old Google self driving cars were Lexus RX and Prius) - but this is also about car sharing. I think car sharing might be a bigger and sooner threat to car manufacturers than self driving cars. By partnering with Uber Toyota gets to hedge.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by erikpukinskis on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @12:54AM (#17856611)
Notably, Toyota Prius is the sole vehicle for Gig.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by rightbyte on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:22PM (#17854166)
My guess is that Volvo ditched them after they messed up Volvo's emergency-brake for some homebrew VC version.
[dead]
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by petermcneeley on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:22PM (#17853679)
Do you have other information about the self driving fatality? While its a tall order, the self driving cars should perform better than humans when it comes to reaction times in incidents like this.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by tjoff on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:27PM (#17853726)
The car didn't do anything wrong, emergency braking was disabled and relied on human intervention.

Now why it was disabled is another question. Most likely because their system isn't anywhere near ready.

The only value I see from the whole of Uber is know how and practical examples of how not do solve this. The fatality didn't change anything, it is (and was) painfully apparent that it was only a matter of time.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by inferiorhuman on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @01:14AM (#17856672)
The Volvo collision system had been disabled, the Uber system didn't detect the woman crossing the road, and the driver was watching Hulu or similar on her phone. Uber had also gone from teams of two doing the autonomous testing to teams of one.

Oh yeah, and Uber released a super contrasty picture to justify their car's behavior. Less biased sources showed that there was plenty of visibility on that stretch of road.

If you're looking for sources, Ars covered everything in pretty good detail.

Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by rasz on Tuesday August 28, 2018 @03:14PM (#17861936)
This isnt true, Uber system detected obstacle, categorized it as bicycle and send emergency braking signal .. which went straight to /dev/null and logs.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by bla2 on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:27PM (#17853722)
Why the throwaway?
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by dsfyu404ed on Monday August 27, 2018 @03:29PM (#17853739)
Probably because he figured the opinion would be highly unpopular (he seems to have figured right as of the time I'm typing this out).
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by karthikb on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:13PM (#17854093)
A huge fraction of cars driven by Uber drivers are made by Toyota. More often than not, you'll get picked up by a Prius, Corolla, or Camry. So to some extent, this is about maintaining market share.
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by MBCook on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:36PM (#17854305)
Is it really larger than expected? Or could it simply be a reflection of how popular Toyota cars are in general?
Re:Toyota Investing $500M in Uber in Driverless Car Pact by karthikb on Monday August 27, 2018 @04:47PM (#17854393)
Toyota has an existing partnership with Uber for leases to drivers.

If Uber's thesis - that app-hailing will supplant car ownership - is correct, then car manufacturers have an incentive to either create their own hailing networks or partner with existing ones.