Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money

Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by wodenokoto on Monday August 20, 2018 @07:39PM (#17805197)

Several years ago, I went to a data science Meetup where one of the speakers was working for a company which entire goal was to beat the bookies at soccer. They had people watching games, recording every detail, and a host of machine learning and statistical experts on payroll to make predictions.

No shit the bookies don't wanna take their bets.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by atheriel on Monday August 20, 2018 @09:24PM (#17805982)

In practice these outfits have accounts at large Asian sportsbooks (which don't bother to ban sharps) or at Pinnacle (which has traditionally welcomed them). Even setting aside the risk of being banned, successful syndicates are unlikely to bet at major Western sportsbooks because the vig (margins) are too high.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by panarky on Monday August 20, 2018 @09:20PM (#17805957)

> No shit the bookies don't wanna take their bets.

Why doesn't the bookmaker watch how these guys bet then adjust the odds accordingly?

As long as the books are balanced, they'll make money.

And if the data science guys have better probabilities, then the new odds should make more money for the bookies on the other side.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by atheriel on Monday August 20, 2018 @09:26PM (#17805996)

This is exactly what happens at the sportsbooks that take sharp customers.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by ethbro on Monday August 20, 2018 @10:10PM (#17806278)

And moreover, if you attract the smart money... and see statistically relevant better patterns... why not lay down your own bets at competitors?

As the book who accepts smart money and has non-anonymous customers, you have a more accurate idea of the actual odds than anyone else.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by atheriel on Monday August 20, 2018 @10:54PM (#17806514)

This is attractive in theory but it's a bit difficult to do in practice. Usually the places with the worst comparative odds are also quite aggressive in banning sharp accounts (including any proxy accounts you'd set up as this rival sportsbook). You've got to take the vig into account, as well, which is likely high. So in most cases it's probably not be worth the cost. Especially when there are plenty of other ways to use sharp information to make money.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by tpm on Tuesday August 21, 2018 @04:39AM (#17808044)

> why not lay down your own bets at competitors?

It's not worth it. Even if they don't ban you outright, the stakes/winnings are very limited for that kind of thing to make sense. And then there are odds data services like Betradar which provide every subscribing bookmaker with enough near-live data to instantly improve their prices so as to make any arbitrage very hard. (source: worked at several bookmakers)

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by ethbro on Tuesday August 21, 2018 @10:14AM (#17809753)

Gotcha. I figured it was too obvious of an idea for people to not already have optimized it.

Interesting about bookmakers being subscribed to a common line feed. I didn't know that, but it makes sense in a borderless-money, networked world.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by cultus on Monday August 20, 2018 @08:18PM (#17805543)

Sounds like they should be the bookies.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by wodenokoto on Tuesday August 21, 2018 @02:00AM (#17807345)

Yeah, I never quite understood that part of the business plan either, but it was a data science Meetup, so focus was else where

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by wolfgke on Tuesday August 21, 2018 @08:22AM (#17808897)

> Yeah, I never quite understood that part of the business plan either, but it was a data science Meetup, so focus was else where

Perhaps because of the regulations?

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by nradov on Monday August 20, 2018 @09:10PM (#17805885)

While these schemes are technically impressive, as a society it's sad that so much labor and electrical power goes into something which creates absolutely zero value.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by erichocean on Tuesday August 21, 2018 @12:25AM (#17806987)

There's a lot of value in parting money from fools. Puts it to better use.

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Re:Won and done? Sportsbooks banning the smart money by nradov on Tuesday August 21, 2018 @10:08AM (#17809681)

You can try to justify fraud and con jobs with the same logic.

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