Re:Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized bett...
by hendzen on Monday August 20, 2018 @04:43PM
(#17803767)
I understand survivorship bias.
These firms make many thousands of trades per day, year after year. They have multi-year track records of exceptional returns.
If their edge was truly no better than random then they would have been bankrupted years ago. You can do some back of the envelope math to easily convince yourself of this.
Re:Introduction to Augur, an open-source, decentralized bett...
by gcb0 on Monday August 20, 2018 @06:30PM
(#17804637)
nobody said it's totally innefective (or random), just that it is vastly less effective (and you're exposed to terminal risk more often) than throwing lots of money on an index.
These firms make many thousands of trades per day, year after year. They have multi-year track records of exceptional returns.
If their edge was truly no better than random then they would have been bankrupted years ago. You can do some back of the envelope math to easily convince yourself of this.