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Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by Apes on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:18PM (#17725539)
California progressives have a sort of "feast the beast" strategy. Provide massive benefits on loan. When those loans come due, raise taxes to pay for them. Repeat until the government fails due to overconsumption.

Why can neither side just follow a sane general strategy of setting taxes and choosing the best benefits to fit under the revenue generated?

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by seanmcdirmid on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:32PM (#17725689)
It is worse than that: teachers are given paltry salaries with the promise of a nice pension to make up for it. So to the local governments, they can “pay for it later” unless they actually don’t.

Parents are just as culpable as they want a great education for their kids but don’t really want to pay for it, coupled with proposition 13 many schools in california are a mess.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by scarface74 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:38PM (#17725752)
Exactly. Let’s get rid of pensions and let the market sort it out - and this is coming from a teachers kid.

If you get rid of pensions and try to pay the teachers the same amount as you pay them now, there will be a teacher shortage forcing the government to pay more. They will have to raise taxes to cover it but at least all sides will know the true costs.

I don’t think the pension system in my state is too out of whack. It’s only 2% every year worked of your final salary up to 60% (80%?).

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by seanmcdirmid on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:44PM (#17725807)
I think more than a few districts nationally are already moving to 401ks like private industry is, but paying now is a bitter pill to swallow. And how do you convert existing pensions to a 401k when the money doesn’t really exist?
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by mateo411 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:51PM (#17725910)
It doesn't make sense to do that. You grandfather in the existing pensions, and switch the incoming teachers to a 401K.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by Retric on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:56PM (#17725972)
That means your pension costs don't go down for 30+ years meanwhile your 401k costs keep rising with everyone you add to the 401k system.

The only way to switch is to put more money aside than you 'need' so you have a pool of money to pay for each teachers pension on the day they retire. At that point you can then swap new teachers to 401k's without added costs.

But at that point you understand pensions when fully funded actually cost less than 401k's, assuming similar investments. Because 401k's end up with some dead people having large surplus's and pensions don't.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by WkndTriathlete on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:59PM (#17726686)
> But at that point you understand pensions when fully funded actually cost less than 401k's, assuming similar investments. Because 401k's end up with some dead people having large surplus's and pensions don't.

a) 401(k) and 503(b) plans are expensed and accounted for in the present. You may have the best actuaries in the world but if your current pension-expecting workers beat the odds you're in a world of hurt, even without over-promising and under-funding pension benefits. (No less than Warren Buffett himself famously warned of this problem back in the 1970s, and if there's one thing Buffett knows it's risk assessment and insurance.)

b) 401(k)s are only more expensive than pensions assuming everyone retires at the same age and gets the same benefit on retirement between the two investments. However, as is common, pension retirement age can be as low as age 50. Paying out those pension benefits for those extra 10-15 years (vs. retiring at age 60-65 for 401(k)) probably adds up to paying more for pensions than 401(k)s, especially given that some employees can apparently goose their pension eggs by working overtime in the last few years of employment.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by Retric on Thursday August 09, 2018 @02:17PM (#17726894)
A) The problem is not that this is hard, the problem is their are incentives to get it wrong. If you accept saving to much is a net benefit as it reduces future spending, then you can operate very safely.

B) This just comes down to discounting the pension properly or limiting retirement age to 65.

In the real world doing pensions correctly has not worked out. My point is simply they have an innate mathematical advantage not that it's directly applicable.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by scarface74 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:49PM (#17725886)
In a way they are screwed. The pension system like social security is a pyramid scheme.

But didn’t the private sector basically contribute the value of the pension to the 401K using some type of present value calculation?

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by germinalphrase on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:56PM (#17725970)
I know this discussion is focus on California, but for context this is not true in all states. Yes, many states have extremely underfunded pensions (Illinois sounds like a disaster) but others (like neighboring Wisconsin) are fully/nearly fully funded.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by mateo411 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:48PM (#17726564)
Can you explain why you think that pensions and social security are Pyramid schemes. I view them more like insurance, but maybe you have an insight that I don't have.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by gshubert17 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @03:55PM (#17727903)
A social insurance system, in which one generation pays for the previous generation, begins to look more like a pyramid scheme when demographics shift and benefits aren't adjustable downward.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by scarface74 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:55PM (#17726645)
Current social security taxes go to pay current beneficiaries and any surplus is spent just like any other tax money and the federal government issues IOUs to the SSA. That’s fine as long as thier are enough workers paying taxes to pay beneficiaries. But as the working age population gets smaller and life expectancy gets longer, either the government will have to raise taxes or decrease benefits.

There is one other fix - make immigration easier. But in the current climate, a politician could never suggest that.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by duxup on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:05PM (#17726064)
I'm not sure there really is a market....

School districts are local so bad schools / poor areas will just suck more, good ones might do ok. Nobody will fill the gap where education is needed but there is no money....

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by scarface74 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:22PM (#17726274)
That’s a completely different discussion - at what level should we as a society fund public schools to ensure equal access? At the state level? At the federal level?

It’s so bad in some places that the more affluent parts of a district are trying to break off and form thier own district so they won’t have to fund the poorer parts.

What’s really bad is that California in particular pays the federal government more in taxes than they receive. The new federal tax laws made it even worse.

It’s not fair and I live in a state that sees net inflows of federal tax money.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by duxup on Thursday August 09, 2018 @05:38PM (#17728746)
You said let the market sort it out... there is no market. That seems like the same conversation.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by sp332 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:00PM (#17726008)
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Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by seanmcdirmid on Thursday August 09, 2018 @02:02PM (#17726713)
That isn’t true. In most states, the local district sets their own budget and legislators might provide some additional funding/oversights. Prop 13 in California gave state legislators more power (since school districts had to rely on less property taxes and more direct state funding) but that is unique to California.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by dragonwriter on Thursday August 09, 2018 @02:16PM (#17726882)
Prop 13 has nothing to do with it, the 1971 California Supreme Court decision mandating statewide equal per-pupil funding is the issue.

While obviously that court decision is unique to California, the broad idea of statewide funding equalization is not a policy that exists only in California, and, in fact, the vast majority of states have most school funding driven by state-set formulas.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by scarface74 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @02:22PM (#17726947)
How well will a state based funding system work in states like Mississippi?
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by jfim on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:22PM (#17725580)
> Why can neither side just follow a sane general strategy of setting taxes and choosing the best benefits to fit under the revenue generated?

Why be reasonable when you can get benefits for yourself and have someone else down the road pay for them?

I wonder when this will break though. California has had it comparatively easy with a surging economy (at least in the Bay area), but the next recession will likely send all the pensions even further into the red.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by jasonbarrah on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:24PM (#17725608)
"When the public discovers they can vote themselves money from the public treasury, the [American] experiment will be over"-Tocqueville 1838
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by fatbird on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:45PM (#17725825)
> Why be reasonable when you can get benefits for yourself and have someone else down the road pay for them?

The only reason someone down the road has to pay for them is because the state/municipality reneged on its half of the bargain to actually fund the pension at the time, counting on future earnings to skate by. The teachers unions accepted lower pay raises or frozen wages in exchange for a good pension. Don't blame them for the malfeasance of the counterparty.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by PKop on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:01PM (#17726019)
They were both malfeasant. Accepting a bad deal because you thought taxpayers would just foot the bill doesn't absolve you of blame.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by fatbird on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:32PM (#17726384)
They didn't accept a bad deal. They deferred current compensation in a scheme that's been known to work properly for a century when the managing side of it doesn't underfund its obligations. This is not, in any way, a "both sides are to blame" issue.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by rconti on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:29PM (#17725657)
Hardly just a California thing; see Social Security. (Which is actually quite easily fixable, if we had the political will). But also posted today was an article about surging bankruptcy filings among the very group (baby boomers) that benefited MOST from a successful economy. Subsequent generations are being saddled with their excesses, and yet we still have a looming crisis.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by dragonwriter on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:58PM (#17725990)
> But also posted today was an article about surging bankruptcy filings among the very group (baby boomers) that benefited MOST from a successful economy.

The oldest baby boomers were still fairly early in their working life when the gains from the economy stopped broadly reaching the working class.

The generation who benefitted the most from the long post-WWII economic boom with wide distribution of gains were the Boomers’ parents.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by antisthenes on Thursday August 09, 2018 @02:54PM (#17727291)
> The oldest baby boomers were still fairly early in their working life when the gains from the economy stopped broadly reaching the working class.

They were just the right age for reaping all the benefits from rising land and real estate prices, despite the real wage flat-lining at the end of 1970s

Not to mention that advancement and career progression were far more expedient in their day, allowing them to reap benefits earlier in their life than millenials today, who might still be working entry level jobs by their 30s.

> The generation who benefitted the most from the long post-WWII economic boom with wide distribution of gains were the Boomers’ parents.

And guess who inherited that wealth, since that generation is mostly dead now?

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by dragonwriter on Thursday August 09, 2018 @03:24PM (#17727573)
> And guess who inherited that wealth, since that generation is mostly dead now?

By that standard, Millennials are the eventual beneficiaries, too.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by FPGAhacker on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:00PM (#17726011)
I'm afraid this will sound like a taunt, but I don't mean it to be.

What is the easy fix, given political will, for social security?

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by rconti on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:09PM (#17726121)
It's difficult to separate political fact from fiction. But nearest I can tell, the "insolvency crisis" of Social Security (where it's said to be trillions of dollars in the red) is generally a fiction; we can wish the President and Congress hadn't raided the trust fund in the 80s, but it seems generally accepted that a few tweaks would immediately fix it.

Considering how easily we fund a war here, a tax cut there, Social Security could be made self-sustaining again fairly easily. We could remove the cap on taxed income while either NOT removing the cap on benefits to high earners (or give them increasing benefits but not in relationship to how much additional tax they're paying). We could adjust the retirement age (say, indexed for lifespan changes to provide some midpoint/average number of 'working years'). That's all without even changing the tax rate, which of course is always another option.

Ultimately, just by basic logic alone, there's no reason we can't fund X amount of benefits with Y amount of receipts by setting the numbers properly -- UNLESS AND UNTIL we have a massive greying crisis like Japan has.

https://www.quora.com/Has-the-U-S-Congress-really-borrowed-t...

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/social-security-fun-facts/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lets-debunk-this-social-securit...

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by sseveran on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:51PM (#17726606)
The US Treasury puts out a financial report that paints a bit less of a rosy picture. So long as the dollar is the world reserve currency there is not going to be much appetite to make significant changes. Any shortfall in benefits after 2035 could likely just be financed with debt. If the appetite for US debt would ever change we would then see likely see changes in standard of living, but not in nominal benefits paid, as dollars would need to be created probably on the Fed's balance sheet. I could see some other mechanism coming along though that would actually handle the mechanics of creating large amounts of money. Given how far off any of this is likely to be I can't conceive of how spending could actually be cut on an absolute basis, or even just indexed to inflation. Ultimately healthcare is likely to be a larger driver of US debt than social security.

https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/fsreports/rpt/finrep/fr/17fr...

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by lesserroneous on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:49PM (#17726584)
Your points are really interesting. I wonder how successful it would be to tax higher wage earners more. Many of the truly wealthy receive their money via means that are largely not subject to payroll taxes. Hence, we are only over taxing the upper "working class" who then might have less incentive for their high wages. Many higher wage earners and their employers are finding clever ways to avoid salary increases through the conferral of non-cash benefits. Though these are technically required to be taxed by reporting them to the IRS, I would bet many people aren't reporting the vacation their company sponsored or their gym memberships. Additionally, many contractors form corps and are using creative ways to reduce their payroll burden (among other tax relief.) The current wage cap is around $118k. What kind of cap do you think would be effective? Or are you saying we should remove caps?
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by dragonwriter on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:55PM (#17726641)
> We could remove the cap on taxed income while either NOT removing the cap on benefits to high earners (or give them increasing benefits but not in relationship to how much additional tax they're paying).

Note that Social Security already has “bend points” in the benefit formula, so one or more additional bend points doesn't change the basic design.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by nimish on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:10PM (#17726133)
Increasing the payroll tax (from 12.8 to 14.4%) and removing the wage ceiling (but not the benefit ceiling) so that high earners who have accounted for most of the wage growth recently contribute a fairer share
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by WkndTriathlete on Thursday August 09, 2018 @02:07PM (#17726768)
> so that high earners who have accounted for most of the wage growth recently contribute a fairer share

I don't disagree with removing the wage ceiling, but if you word it like that you're pretty much guaranteed to fail, because the equal and opposite to that is "Cut the payroll tax so I don't have to fund the bozos that decided to party all through school instead of working their tail off like I did."

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by e40 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:39PM (#17725766)
California progressives have a sort of "feast the beast" strategy

Why is this just a progressive thing?

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by claydavisss on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:49PM (#17725874)
Because public employee unions are the only reliably effective voting bloc in California. Democrats know full well that public employee compensation is a Ponzi schema in the state but won't bite the hand that feeds them.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by leereeves on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:51PM (#17725907)
It's in contrast to the conservative strategy "starve the beast".
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by jewelthief91 on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:03PM (#17726036)
IIRC conservatives don't have a great track record of following through with this.
Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by madengr on Thursday August 09, 2018 @12:51PM (#17725911)
Because a "starve the beast" strategy, like in Kansas, is a product of conservatives. Though school funding in Kansas was fine, despite the hysteria created by the media. There can NEVER be enough money for schools, per the article:

"Some districts are predicting deficits and many districts are bracing for what’s to come by cutting programs, reducing staff or drawing down their reserves—even though per-pupil funding is at its highest level in three decades and voters recently extended a tax hike on the rich to help pay for schools."

Maybe CA should work on it's illegal immigration problem, which is probably a big drain on the schools. Funny to read about all the economic woes in CA despite it's supposed great economy. In reality it's a dump.

Re:California teacher pension debt overwhelms school budgets by metabagel on Thursday August 09, 2018 @01:23PM (#17726286)
Yet somehow the California economy is massive and thriving. So, apparently you're leaving something out or shading your analysis. I'll wait for peer review of your theory.