Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ...
by ColinWright on Saturday August 04, 2018 @11:10AM
(#17687122)
Personally, I find that completely uninformative. Others find it helpful and I won't deny their experience, but I find that no more convincing that proper arguments about the 3 door version.
My variant was not intended to assist explaining the original, it's a variant intended to make people think again. It often exposes non-understanding in those who will blindly and automatically say "Switch".
Here's another variant. 12 doors, I let you choose 3. I then open 4, leaving your chosen 3 and 5 others.
I let you keep your original choice, or give them up to choose only one of the others. Should you switch now?
Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ...
by grigri9 on Saturday August 04, 2018 @12:20PM
(#17687416)
No, In that
P(3/12) = 25%
The remaining doors have 75% probability and choosing 1/5 only gives you 15% chance of winning.
Re:The Time Everyone “Corrected” the World’s Smartest Woman ...
by ColinWright on Saturday August 04, 2018 @12:50PM
(#17687532)
Correct.
Explaining that to muggles, though, is non-trivial.
Now that Monty is closing off 9998 doors, it makes the leap of logic much less difficult. Clearly the one door he didn't close off is special.