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Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by rwallace on Friday July 20, 2018 @06:54AM (#17573934)
There is some truth in this article, but a critical point is being missed.

> per-capita income has more than doubled since 1972

Actually, per capita income has plummeted since 1972. To correctly assess income, you have to know the rate of inflation, and the official inflation figures are effectively lies because they focus on consumer goods, which have indeed become cheaper, while ignoring housing (and in America, college fees and health insurance), which has become drastically more expensive thanks to artificial scarcity created by zoning laws combined with the shortage of remote or rural jobs.

That sounds like only one factor of many, but I think it accounts for much of the rest. Real income falling every decade creates negative anticipation which has difficulty finding something to latch onto because we keep being told we are getting continually richer, hence the miasma of fear and hate constantly looking for targets. Nor is the fear unfounded. For centuries, we tried to figure out what destroyed the Roman Empire. Answer: the Romans were not destroyed by any external force. They were wiped out by their own ruling class, via abuse of land ownership law.

As for what to do about it, my first suggestion would be to start voting single-issue on repeal of zoning laws.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by thrav on Friday July 20, 2018 @10:31AM (#17575263)
We have to remove incentives for holding / renting property. I think it’s Germany that taxes the shit out of you if the owner doesn’t live in the residence. This would immediately rid the United States of all of these “investment property” owners and people buying up houses to rent with million dollar cash offers to diversify their portfolio. The stock of available homes would go up. This would also lead to the sale of any prop (?) houses being held onto indefinitely because of cheap taxes that are being rented out to fund their life actually living somewhere else. It would cut down on vacation property ownership, which again increases housing stock. It would cut down on career AirBnB-ing.

The downsides are a decrease in rental stock, and potentially less investment in any given property since a landlord is no longer maintaining it. I feel like we could find some easy fixes here with things like tax rebates for non-cosmetic home improvements.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by lazerpants on Friday July 20, 2018 @11:27AM (#17575755)
In Germany renting is more prevalent than in the US due to their rules, you must be thinking of somewhere else.

https://qz.com/167887/germany-has-one-of-the-worlds-lowest-h...

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by Tomte on Friday July 20, 2018 @11:49AM (#17576000)
Germany gives tax breaks to people buying real estate to rent it out. If you buy real estate to live in it, you are strictly worse off, when it comes to taxes.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by posixplz on Friday July 20, 2018 @10:41AM (#17575357)
British Columbia does this. The Vancouver housing market has seen major shifts because of their vacancy tax.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by DjiboutiJon on Friday July 20, 2018 @12:57PM (#17576739)
Any sources I can read about this?
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by posixplz on Friday July 20, 2018 @02:21PM (#17577474)
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by thisacctforreal on Saturday July 21, 2018 @07:09AM (#17581602)
ddg: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=vacancy+tax+vancouver

From a CBC article;

Under the new rules, homes that are not occupied for at least six months of the year are subject to a tax of one per cent of the property's assessed value. The deadline to rent out empty dwellings was July 1.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by DiffEq on Friday July 20, 2018 @11:56AM (#17576078)
The solution is to have zero tax on property of primary residence. This way when one does buy land and pays it off there is no need to have a substantial income to pay property tax and you can at least live rent free not paying "rent" to the tax authorities every year) and/or make the land work for you. Also remove the inheritance tax so wealth can be built over generations and not evaporate away. Getting rid of inflation as well would help as one could simply save money in a bank account and not worry about it losing value every year.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by toss1 on Friday July 20, 2018 @11:07AM (#17575573)
Also, tho per capita income may rise, that does not account for (re)distribution of income, in this case drastically upward. The portion of US GDP going to workers who earn a living (vs capital holders) has never been lower in modern times.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W270RE1A156NBEA

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by Isamu on Friday July 20, 2018 @08:02AM (#17574281)
>Actually, per capita income has plummeted since 1972

I'd like to see that in a time series graph some day, rather than just an assertion.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by dredmorbius on Friday July 20, 2018 @09:41AM (#17574877)
The Maddison Project has global GDP data imputed to the year 1.

https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by occamrazor on Friday July 20, 2018 @11:34AM (#17575824)
I checked data for a few developed countries there and all show an increase in GDP per capita.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by dantheman0207 on Friday July 20, 2018 @12:01PM (#17576144)
I think the parents’ point was that even though GDP per capita has increased, the cost of living has increased disproportionately. Because of the rise in housing and healthcare costs, net income in real dollars has gone down even as GDP continues to rise.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by dredmorbius on Friday July 20, 2018 @03:40PM (#17578238)
Another argument might be made that income variability is now more significant, as any break or disruption is likely to be highly disruptive: loss of housing, family relocation, disruption of children's education and environment, etc.

I'm notaware of any specific study of same, offhand,but the notion has a name: The precariate.

It's what Yonatan Zunger (not an economist) describes as "your financial shock wealth":

https://shift.newco.co/your-financial-shock-wealth-4845e6dc1...

"All hollowed out" does reference several related studies:

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/01/white-w...

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by jeffreyrogers on Friday July 20, 2018 @12:32PM (#17576478)
I've seen that claim made but have not seen evidence for it other than anecdotal or for subsets of the population. It does not seem to be true for the population as a whole.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by CompelTechnic on Friday July 20, 2018 @07:55AM (#17574243)
For anyone interested in the facts of what goes into the cpi-u (or -w) basket rather than opinion, here is a breakdown of the weights going into the basket of goods and services. The date is a bit stale, from 2015-2016, but good nonetheless.

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2017.txt

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/home.htm#...

notably, top-level breakdowns are: Food and beverages 14.359

Housing 41.772

Apparel 3.018

Recreation 5.737

Transportation 16.537

Medical care 8.673

Education and communication 6.707

Other goods and services 3.198

Interestingly, if you dig into the data, you can see some interesting patterns of consumer spending. For example, women's and girl's apparel spending is 66% larger than men's and boy's apparel! Also, motor vehicle maintenance and repair is only weighted as 1.123% of spending, which is a lot less than I would have guessed given people's horror stories.

Breaking down the housing category, the combined values of rent and owner's equivalent of rent make up more than 30% of the basket. This has risen by about 5% (of the whole basket) since 1987. I doubt that that category is being evaluated too low in a substantial way. Rent by itself is only 7.8% of the basket, which may mean that the basket is fairly insensitive to people being gouged by their landlords.

If you live in a fancy metro, your rent will be above average compared to the nation. This is to be expected.

I am surprised that medical is only 8-9%. This has risen from 5.8% in 1987. I expect that the reason it is so low is that the average person spends 80% of their life having tiny medical bills and 20% of their life having huge ones.

By looking at which categories have shrunk in their weightings over time, you can get a feel for what goods/services are cheaper now than in the past OR that people now choose substitute goods instead of. Certain categories have no substitute, i.e. medical. If you squint at the data real hard you can eke out where you personally are getting reamed more than past-you would have. Some actionable advice would be to consider which services have gotten more expensive due to Baumol's Cost Disease (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease) and do your best to DIY them.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by rwallace on Friday July 20, 2018 @08:38AM (#17574476)
> If you live in a fancy metro, your rent will be above average compared to the nation.

The problem with this view is that places that a few decades ago would have counted as 'fancy metros' are now more accurately described as 'the only places where there are any jobs (the wages of which are still often insufficient to pay for housing)'.

Which leads to another actionable suggestion: we should stop tolerating failure to hire remote workers. (Yes, I know the excuses. We should also stop tolerating those excuses.)

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by CompelTechnic on Friday July 20, 2018 @09:13AM (#17574666)
If you want to make this thread objective and actionable, keep it realistic.

There are thriving mid-size cities and towns across the U.S where rent doesn't eat your total paycheck. I live in one of them. The data above supports this. 41% of consumption on total housing category has only moved down slightly, from 42% in 1987.

Remote work should be more encouraged, I agree.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by crusso on Friday July 20, 2018 @08:57AM (#17574569)
we should stop tolerating failure to hire remote workers

What are you suggesting?

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by rwallace on Friday July 20, 2018 @09:10AM (#17574646)
I'm suggesting that we treat discrimination against remote workers the way we treated some other forms of harmful discrimination in hiring: stop doing it, stop accepting or repeating excuses for doing it, stop tolerating companies doing it, and ultimately make it illegal.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by CompelTechnic on Friday July 20, 2018 @09:16AM (#17574688)
Remote workers are not a protected class, and there is no reason to make them a pretected class, considering the reality that lots of jobs require a physical presence. Calling it discrimination implies that there is a permanent population of people who are capable of working, but can only possibly work if they do not have to commute, and that they are being oppressed because of this. It is not discrimination so much as it's a case of society having a different set of preferences than you.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by ben_w on Friday July 20, 2018 @11:50AM (#17576013)
GP is giving an economic rather than a social justice reason for making it a protected class.

I don’t think I agree with him, but that doesn’t make it “not a reason”.

Reason I disagree with him is that if workplaces rearrange themselves to not need physical presence, all the jobs suddenly get done by whichever genuinely third world nation can put high bandwidth internet connection into literal shantytown slums the fastest.

If this was a gradual and planned-for change, starting with boosting the salary expectations of the poorest in the world up to our level, that’s one thing. Doing it to solve housing cost differences between rural and urban areas in developed nations will just blow up in everyone’s faces with unhandled side-effects.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by crusso on Friday July 20, 2018 @10:57AM (#17575496)
Disclosure: I've been a remote worker full-time for the last 5 years. I travel to the office a few days a month.

There are many natural reasons why being physically in an office is advantageous. I can have face-to-face meetings with multiple people without conference call issues, I'm available to go visit clients local to the office, interactions with colleagues are just easier due to proximity, I hear the office cross-talk that is unavailable when you're remote, I form closer personal relationships with my colleagues because of countless unplanned interactions, I can perform physical tasks like installing servers, etc.

Granted, there are disadvantages to working locally too - but the complex mix of advantages and disadvantages feed into the decisions that everyone makes in how they run their businesses, where they choose to be employed, etc.

Does it not concern you that you're advocating overriding all of that decision making with some one-size-fits-all government policy that would criminalize people simply working the way they wish to?

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by tomrod on Friday July 20, 2018 @10:22AM (#17575190)
Sounds like a nice ideal. I'm an economist. The first thing that comes to mind is the technology infrastructure costs required to maintain a potentially all remote workforce. A central location is better for a number of different workstreams. The second thing that comes to mind is unintended consequences. Are all jobs remote? Bakers? Doctors? Nuclear firmware upgrades?
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by omgomgomg2 on Friday July 20, 2018 @07:35AM (#17574134)
Money is a massively abstract commodity, and as such, monetary distribution is an abstract measure of potential commodities. In concrete terms, this has a highly contingent relationship to well-being.

Collective wealth is, of course, subject to the same limitations but respectively less precise.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by rwallace on Friday July 20, 2018 @08:29PM (#17580054)
While I still haven't been able to find an actual time series graph, a Google search for 'Old Economy Steve' gives some indicators of what has been lost.

And remember, the new scarcity is all artificial. There was a time when most people had to be poor because our species did not have the technology to do better. Now, most people are poor in the middle of plenty, because those in power are deliberately making them that way.

Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by WhompingWindows on Friday July 20, 2018 @10:20AM (#17575169)
Is there an inflation metric you know of that contains all of those other costs (college, housing, health, etc)?
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by rwallace on Friday July 20, 2018 @12:48PM (#17576655)
No. Closest I've come across, though I can't find the link now, is one set of figures that just looked at housing, and found by that metric, real income in the U.S. peaked in 1959. Which, I will claim, was the main cause of the opening up of society in the sixties, with the subsequent drop in real income being the main cause of the end of this phenomenon.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by wazoox on Friday July 20, 2018 @09:56AM (#17574997)
I was quite astonished, reading a vintage car magazine recently. In an article about the 1972 For Mustang "Olympic" series, I've learnt that this high-end model cost then $3200 (basic Mustangs started at $2400). Average US worker salary was $800. Now compare with any brand, any model, and the average salary today...
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by abecedarius on Friday July 20, 2018 @10:12AM (#17575120)
Did you make a typo? US salaries in 1972 were way more than $800.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by pimlottc on Friday July 20, 2018 @10:22AM (#17575187)
Presumedly that’s per month.
Re:Why assessing the state of the world is harder than it so... by superhuzza on Friday July 20, 2018 @12:36PM (#17576529)
per hour, bro