News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Goldman Sachs model to predict World Cup game results didn’t come close. Parent comment

Re:Goldman Sachs model to predict World Cup game results did... by gtr on Monday July 16, 2018 @06:59AM (#17540268)
As there are relatively few goals, anything that can turn a goal into not a goal or vice versa can have a massive impact on the game. For example the penalty decision against Croatia in the final. Another thing that adds to the randomness is the chance that a key player may be sent off or injured.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Goldman Sachs model to predict World Cup game results did... by systoll on Monday July 16, 2018 @08:00AM (#17540579)
To make that be specific -- in 44 of 64 games, and in every single penalty shoot-out, turning one goal into not a goal or vice-versa would've changed the outcome.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Goldman Sachs model to predict World Cup game results did... by ufo on Monday July 16, 2018 @09:36AM (#17541146)
It is not so simple because goals in football are not independent from each other. A team that scores first has the opportunity to play more cautiously and go for more counter attacks.
[ Parent | on HN ]