People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard

Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by azernik on Thursday July 12, 2018 @07:43PM (#17519530)

This is, by the way, a problem I see with a lot of public policy - in a market system, what's good for companies is not necessarily what's good for the system.

Steve Eisman puts this well in [1] when talking about why he's investing in bank stocks even though he thinks prospective rollbacks in Dodd-Frank reforms are a bad idea: "There's two issues. There's what I think about the financial system and what I think about financial stocks, and the two don't necessarily correlate."

[1] https://youtu.be/NJodqhzqPKQ?t=4m10s

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Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by ctchocula on Friday July 13, 2018 @01:46AM (#17520767)

I liked the Steve Eisman character from The Big Short, but I was disappointed his prediction bank stocks would do well didn't play out.

  KBE:   44.49 Jan 30, 2017, 47.82 July 11, 2018 = 7.48% price growth (I couldn't find numbers for total return and too lazy to compute from distribution history)
  VFAIX: 20123 Jan 30, 2017, 23569 July 11, 2018 = 17.1% total return
  VFIAX: 22291 Jan 30, 2017, 27729 July 11, 2018 = 24.4% total return

  KBE:   SPDR Bank ETF
  VFAIX: Vanguard Financial Index
  VFIAX: Vanguard S&P 500

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Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by collinmanderson on Sunday July 15, 2018 @10:51PM (#17538431)

KBE total return is about 12.8% (42.70 to 48.19) based on http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?KBE,VFAIX,VFIAX (those numbers are adjusted based on distributions and splits)

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Re:People Aren’t Dumb, the World Is Hard by azernik on Friday July 13, 2018 @04:11PM (#17526280)

I find that super interesting - especially since they seem to have underperformed the 500 even after the deregulation bill passed in March.

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