‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Attention

Re:‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Atten... by rm_-rf_slash on Monday June 25, 2018 @12:18PM (#17393577)

To be fair, the economy was still fairly strong by that point. It wasn’t until 06-07 that the subprime lending really got out of hand, and even though 07 was technically when the recession started, it didn’t become a full-blown panic until 2008 when Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns collapsed.

The yield curve is like seeing upturned leaves in the wind: a storm may coming, but it’s not clear when.

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Re:‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Atten... by ergothus on Monday June 25, 2018 @01:18PM (#17394021)

My knowledge of predicting recessions is unchanged, but my way of looking at leaves on the ground is forever changed...

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Re:‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Atten... by smellf on Monday June 25, 2018 @03:48PM (#17395248)

What he's referring to is not leaves on the ground, but upturned leaves on the trees. The conventional wisdom says that a storm is coming when you can see the backs of the leaves.

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Re:‘A Powerful Signal of Recessions’ Has Wall Street’s Atten... by rm_-rf_slash on Monday June 25, 2018 @02:24PM (#17394498)

It’s not leaves on the ground, it’s the leaves on the branches to watch. When they’re upturned, it means that the pressure system is changing, which often precludes rain.

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