News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by rdtsc on Monday June 25, 2018 @03:59AM (#17390684)
> Milky Way is colonizable in a couple of million years.

I have two takes on it:

1) We don't know the possible implication of new discoveries. Well, actually we get some glimpse of it, for example with nuclear or biological weapons around, it is fairly easy to wipe out a large part of the population. The more advanced the technology becomes it seems there is a higher chance of it blowing up in our faces and us destroying ourselves. So the galaxy could be colonizable in a few million years, but any civilization headed closer to that ability, gets closer (and faster) to its own destruction as well.

> The only logical conclusion is that there are no other technologically advanced species in the Milky Way or that we're the first(very unlikely).

Given my other pessimistic take on it (1), I would say it likely there were (are) quite a few technologically advanced species, but they've wiped themselves out or will do so before the reach the ability to colonize planets in other galaxies.

2) Another take on it is these civilization have to share the same physics and chemistry that we do. And maybe there is just a limit that gets achieved and long term colonization or fast travel is just no possible. That is there are no shortcuts like wormholes, Alcubierre drives, antigravity and other such things. We've been used to seeing huge leaps in technology and science in the last 1000 years, so it's tempting to extrapolate and but maybe we are close to reaching a wall. So there are quite a few civilizations out there but they've flown probes in their own start system, now developed internet and are sharing pictures of alien cats, hanging out on their version of Facebook and watching their alien Netflix, and of course discussing their equivalent of Fermi's Paradox on online forums. All without a chance of ever leaving their neighborhood.

Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by raducu on Monday June 25, 2018 @07:50AM (#17391564)
1) It takes just ONE civilization not wiping itself out to colonize the galaxy; furthermore, colonizing the galaxy is a great insurance policy against extinction

2) 1% of the speed of light is very achievable even with today's technology, it's just the(irrational) fear of nuclear reactors in space and lack of political will that keeps us from exploring interstellar travel.

Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by jonathanstrange on Monday June 25, 2018 @09:02AM (#17392046)
> 1) It takes just ONE civilization not wiping itself out to colonize the galaxy; furthermore, colonizing the galaxy is a great insurance policy against extinction

Why? See my other post. You provide no evidence for this claim. We currently have no plans to colonize the galaxy so why would other "advanced" civilization get this crazy idea? Birth control was invented in the 60s already.

Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by raducu on Monday June 25, 2018 @10:34AM (#17392709)
We have Musk wanting to colonize Mars, don't you think it will take just ONE eccentric trilionaire (after the solar system is colonized) to colonize the Milky Way?
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by Retra on Monday June 25, 2018 @10:56PM (#17397576)
Wanting to colonize mars and actually doing it are quite different things.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by tomatotomato37 on Monday June 25, 2018 @09:31AM (#17392242)
>colonizing the galaxy is a great insurance policy against extinction

I'm not so sure. The only difference between a colony ship and a kinetic world destroyer is that the colony ship slows down before it reaches its destination

Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by sliken on Monday June 25, 2018 @09:58PM (#17397354)
The earth would easily handle the impact of any colony ship we could currently manage. Sure things are you approach the speed of light, but we can't.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by posterboy on Monday June 25, 2018 @09:13AM (#17392104)
1. If the chance for a huge colony to go extinct, raising the coefficient to galactic scale does not change the relative probability significantly unless you add constraints to the population dynamics. Basically you could get the same numbers for people in a colony and colonies in a galaxy. "only ONE" kinda obscures the fact that this one would be a mighty huge one.

2. On straight lines perhaps with ages long acceleration. Planning such a course might well take more than nuclear reactor, no?

Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by Cthulhu_ on Monday June 25, 2018 @09:42AM (#17392325)
I'm going to put on my sci fi glasses here and predict that the universe will suddenly blink out of existence once a scientist works on or develops something like warp speed.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by saalweachter on Sunday July 01, 2018 @08:29AM (#17435333)
Maybe, but I’d out my money on the universe blinking out of existence after someone begins a local escalation of privilege on the hardware simulating it.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by zentiggr on Monday June 25, 2018 @11:41AM (#17393249)
... to be replaced by something even more unlikely...
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by AstralStorm on Monday June 25, 2018 @08:13AM (#17391685)
We have not implemented space mining that would allow refilling those reactors in space though. Reusable landing is still very iffy.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by arcticfox on Monday June 25, 2018 @08:57AM (#17392015)
Obviously we haven't done it yet, but that we know how is the point.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by Gravityloss on Monday June 25, 2018 @09:26AM (#17392200)
1% of the speed of light with nuclear reactors? I'm skeptical. It's 3000 km/s.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by raducu on Monday June 25, 2018 @12:46PM (#17393781)
Project Orion was supposes to reach ~10% of the speed of light by using fission bombs and could theoretically be built using 1950's technology.

There are other proposed schemes to travel at ~light speeds - light sails, nuclear fragment rockets, but I'd bet on nuclear fusion in the not so distant future.

Faster than light travel may be off the table, but I see no reason why nuclear energy alone could not get us "close" to the speed of light in the next centuries or so.

Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by Gravityloss on Monday June 25, 2018 @04:45PM (#17395654)
Thanks, I didn't realize they were planning for so high delta vees. They were fusion bombs in the end.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by firmgently on Monday June 25, 2018 @12:01PM (#17393423)
Voyager 1 is already going about 17km/s. With no atmosphere or gravity to fight against you can keep accelerating as long as you have power.
Re:Model predicts we're the only advanced civilization in th... by Gravityloss on Monday June 25, 2018 @04:27PM (#17395517)
No, you need a propellant even if you use a nuclear energy source.