Even if it does eliminate 20% of jobs (that number is way too high), opposing it in the short-run won't solve anything permanently, as the GP said. Then when UPS is losing money and facing layoffs, the leverage will be massive. The union needs to adopt a long-term strategy or risk getting destroyed 5-10 years down the road.

You are saying that you don't think UPS' automation efforts will reduce the effective workforce by 20% in the next decade? I would strongly disagree with your certainty, and believe if their per-package efforts don't decline by > 20%, they will consider their efforts a failure.

Also, it is possible the union sees no end-game in sight and is just trying to preserve jobs as long as possible. (The robots won't have a union, and if they did, this union would be unlikely to be a part of forming it.)

I think I agree that the UPS union's decision is possibly a poor one, but come on -- it's easy to see why they made it. Making self-interested, short-sighted decisions is literally what humans are best at.

(Plus, it's not like we can pretend to predict the future and better than they can!)

Amazon, with all of its technological and operations might, is pathetically terrible at their own last mile delivery operations (I'm going to discount them hauling trailers from distribution centers to USPS sort facilities; anyone can do that). To displace UPS and Fedex, you would require immense amounts of capital for your delivery network, and staff properly compensated and treated well for quality work (ie a union or benefits of sufficient quality, a union isn't required).

Arm chair "logistics experts" should go sling packages for a few weeks to see what it takes to compete with real operations before declaring existing operations dead if they don't "disrupt themselves". UPS, Fedex, and USPS aren't going anywhere.

While I agree that delivery logistics are not easy, I don’t think it is something that will take massive amounts of capital. Simply increasing the compensation for delivery people high enough to get competent full timers would likely solve the problem. And due to the union wages of ups, there is a lot of room to raise wages for drivers.

The trick with the capital requirements is Amazon is totally willing to contract out to small regional conpanies; so you can have big plans, but start small and grow, if it works out. There's room outside of Amazon delivery too.

Name a regional last mile delivery firm with the quality of UPS, FedEx, or USPS.

FedEx full timers. Their subcontractors are terrible.

I haven’t had bad luck with Ground or Home Delivery, but I could see there’s variability based on location.

The automation will impact the ground facility guys, who are low seniority chum whom a union will typically sacrifice.

My guess is that they overutilize seasonal/temp people and understaff later in the year from the unions pov.