News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by InTheArena on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:07AM (#17266151)
The A380 program was almost terminated this year, and only a lifeline order by Emirates (which is incredibly exposed, as they have almost half of the A380s that have been delivered or ordered) kept the line alive. Lessors won't touch the plane due to a lack of a secondary market (as reflected in this order).

The problem with the A380 was that it was a prestige project formed around a core concept that never materialized, and was directly opposite of the trend over the last 30 years. Namely routes were becoming more fragmented, not less. The a380 required huge amounts of centralization for it to be effective. Places where that is true - Dubai primarily - it's worked well. Everyone else it simply is way to big. None of the passenger or cargo carriers in the United States, which has half of world wide lift, have received a A380.

Several studies have concluded that the only reason the A380 was feasible was because of Government launch aide. When you looked at it logically and with non-pollyannaish analysis, you do the same thing that Boeing did with the 747-600/700 and cancel it. (Boeing eventually built a scaled down 747-8i, which was also a failure, but it only cost them a few billion instead of tens of billions).

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by Reason077 on Friday June 08, 2018 @12:29PM (#17267041)
These particular aircraft that are being scrapped were very early-production A380s which were delivered significantly overweight (rumoured to be >5 tonnes!) Singapore Airlines planned to return them years ago and is, in fact, replacing them with new A380s. Other airlines don't want them because they are the worst A380s flying: their extra weight means they burn too much fuel.

Certainly the A380 program hasn't been quite as successful as Airbus would have hoped, but I'm not sure it was ever in any real danger of being scrapped. Those rumours may have just been put out by Airbus in order to pressure Emirates into moving ahead with their order.

There are still airlines like British Airways who have a lot of old B747s in service that are approaching their EOL. It seems likely that BA will order more A380s to replace at least some of these.

And in any case, there are still more than 100 unfulfilled A380 orders on Airbus's books, meaning there's enough demand to keep production running for quite a few years to come, even if there were no additional orders.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by selectodude on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:08PM (#17267491)
It seems likely that BA will order more A380s to replace at least some of these.

They already bought their A380s. They're not buying any more. The 747 will most likely be replaced by A350-1000s or 777-9s.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by Reason077 on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:02PM (#17268063)
BA wants to buy additional A380s - they just haven't yet been able to agree on the price. For an airline with a slot-constrained hub (Heathrow), it would be a step backwards to replace 747s with smaller aircraft as this would reduce their overall route capacity.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/airbus-is...

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by selectodude on Friday June 08, 2018 @07:26PM (#17270554)
They've been hollering about that for awhile now, the deal was supposed to close by Feb 15, then April 15, and now talks are suspended altogether. If it isn't dead I'd be surprised.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by chillydawg on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:29PM (#17268921)
UK government just approved an extra runway at Heathrow, so capacity there (and onto NYC) will increase a fair bit.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by Reason077 on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:28PM (#17269411)
It will, if it actually gets built. The Heathrow third runway will be subject to the mother of all protest movements and legal challenges, so it'll be a decade or more before it could possibly get built - well after the remaining 747s are due for retirement.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by woodandsteel on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:33PM (#17269444)
Maybe the A380 program will continue for many years, but it seems unlikely the program as a whole, including development costs, will ever earn a profit.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by J-dawg on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:32PM (#17268404)
How does a plane end up being overweight? And how did the weight get reduced on later models?
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by RyJones on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:08PM (#17268713)
The same thing happened with the first 787 examples, as well. What I read was wiring to support testing equipment that couldn't easily be removed
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by magduf on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:44PM (#17268516)
That's what I want to know, and why can't they be retrofitted to match the specs of the later models?
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by rbanffy on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:35PM (#17268982)
It's not always cheap to remove 5 tonnes of wiring. You need to count downtime and the cost of removal proper (disassembly, testing, reassembly, more testing) and compare it with the difference in price of scrapping it and replace with another model that's, perhaps, a better match for your desired capacity and the difference in the operational cost over the plane's lifetime. There are two-engine planes that promise to almost match the actual usage of the 380 for a lower operational cost.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by magduf on Monday June 11, 2018 @01:21PM (#17286381)
Your last part there is wrong: as covered in many comments here, the A380 is still selling, in fact to the same carrier that's not renewing the leases on these early models. So it does still have a niche that it excels at; the problem is just that the early models have too much weight compared to current models.

This isn't about the A380 vs. other models, this is about old-A380 vs. new-A380. I was just asking why it wasn't feasible to retrofit the old ones to match the specs of the new ones, which these carriers do want and are buying. I could understand if we were talking about cars, where there's a well-tuned assembly line and it's almost never cost-effective to retrofit, and the unit cost is actually shockingly low when you consider the complexity and cost of components, but large aircraft aren't like cars. (Aircraft assembly plants make a few dozen a year, car plants make hundreds of thousands.)

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by dionian on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:40PM (#17268494)
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by sametmax on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:24AM (#17266345)
Which is sad given they are the most comfortable planes I've been in. Lot of space, lots of entry points, very quiet, and almost zero vibration.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by gadders on Friday June 08, 2018 @12:04PM (#17266763)
Emirates Economy on an a380 was the best economy class I have used.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by rajathagasthya on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:08PM (#17268717)
Have to agree. It's the only flight I've been in that doesn't scream "economy".
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by kylehotchkiss on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:40PM (#17269489)
Try to get in the back of the plane and sometimes you'll get 2-3 seats to enjoy! Best way to fly in the world in my opinion.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by jackson1way on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:44PM (#17267886)
same here! 14 hours flight felt like 4 hours
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by _Codemonkeyism on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:14AM (#17266222)
I do think the A380 helped Airbus brand image a lot. It might not be worth the money invested.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by InTheArena on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:20AM (#17266290)
Yep, I think the A380 helped both Airbus's and Europe's brand.

And that's why the government assistance in the form of launch aide might have been worth it.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by strong_silent_t on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:31AM (#17266423)
I think if the government is going to subsidize something, politically aerospace makes a lot of sense. It has jobs for engineering, technicians, and high-skill trades. It has a long planning horizon and lots of regulation (meaning less short term competitive forces at play). It has defense applications. The downside is that everyone else is also subsidizing it, so it is still hard to compete.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:03PM (#17268091)
The 747 was not subsidized.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by Someone1234 on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:33PM (#17268411)
Boeing as a company is massively subsidized. People often like to play this game where they specifically mention a model number and make the claim that that specific model wasn't, while ignoring that the entire company, infrastructure, and apparatus is.

The US subsidizes Boeing, European countries subsidize Airbus, and Canada subsidizes Bombardier. Playing semantic games doesn't alter that reality.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:41PM (#17268496)
Boeing bought the land and built an entirely new plant and factory for the 747 (the Everett plant). No government funds were received for it.

Boeing lost money for the first 10 years on the 747, but then it started making massive amounts of money off of it. Those profits funded the 757, 767, etc.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by toweringgoat on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:14PM (#17268776)
https://www.heraldnet.com/news/boeings-washington-tax-break-...

Tax breaks for companies are a subsidy. (Aside from the military cross-subsidisation.)

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:42PM (#17269051)
1. Your article is about 2016, 50 years after the 747 was developed.

2. Having the government take less of your money is not a subsidy.

3. Boeing 2016 revenue was $95.5 billion. The tax break is about a quarter of a percent of that.

4. I'm curious what you consider military technology that makes up the 747.

5. I'm curious what part of the Everett plant, which was built from scratch to build the 747, was built with government/military funding.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by rbanffy on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:40PM (#17269022)
Every government dollar (over)spent in Boeing-branded thing is a subsidy for every other Boeing-branded thing. The same way every dollar NASA spends with SpaceX's Falcon 9/Dragon systems subsidizes the development of further generations of Falcon/Dragon/BFR systems. It's really hard to assume this money is not spent thinking about the strategic side effects.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:20PM (#17269350)
You'll need better evidence for comingling of funds than that. I'd have a better case for saying that the immense profits from BCAC are what enables Boeing to even bid on defense contracts.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by somecontext on Saturday June 09, 2018 @09:33AM (#17272928)
This page makes the case that Boeing's large commercial aircraft division is subsidized in some detail: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/html/146484.htm
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Saturday June 09, 2018 @04:53PM (#17274930)
Thank you. What's glaringly missing is what timescale these figures cover. Annual? Aggregate? It's also pretty clear that the figures have no relevance to the 747.

Tax abatements are not subsidies.

Here's the rebuttal to your link:

http://www.boeing.com/company/key-orgs/government-operations...

In particular,

"The USG's defense against the charges noted that the NASA and DoD contracts in question were arms-length commercial transactions where Boeing was paid for research commissioned by the two government agencies. The USG further noted that the NASA research projects were undertaken for public benefit, and that the results and benefits were widely shared, including with Airbus."

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by mc32 on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:05PM (#17268700)
I guess the question if it could be answered would be can the profits and losses of civ vs military programmes be sussed out somehow? That would shed some light on whether subsidies play a role, discounting “pollination” from skunkworks.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:18PM (#17269339)
It would be illegal for Boeing to funnel money for military contracts to the civil aviation side. In fact, BCAC (Boeing Commercial Airplane Company) and BMAC (Boeing Military Airplane Company) are separate accounting entities for this reason.

If there's a belief that BCAC is actually a money-losing operation propped up by money funneled from BMAC, there needs to be some strong evidence for this. BCAC is massively profitable.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by mc32 on Friday June 08, 2018 @05:37PM (#17269923)
Interesting, so does that mean there is no merit to the accusation made by euros that Boeing commercial is subsidized by Boeing military? I mean, I keep hearing people say that as received knowledge, but perhaps they are just thinking about technological cross pollination which while important, doesn’t help that much in bringing new products to market.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @06:00PM (#17270075)
There's not any merit in the accusation. The government did subsidize Boeing's SST program, but the technology developed for that wasn't usable for the subsonic jets. (For example, Boeing airliners use 3000 psi hydraulics, while the SST used 4500 psi to save weight. Such required a totally redesigned hydraulic system. 4500 psi is very dangerous, spray from a pinhole leak will cut right through you.)
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by toweringgoat on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:28PM (#17268370)
But Boeing is - majorly. Cross-subsidisation essentially.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:35PM (#17268436)
Military stuff, sure. The civil aviation stuff, no. Boeing did try to sell the military the 747 as a tanker, but that went nowhere and Boeing did not receive any government dev funding for it.

The 707 did have a tanker version, the KC-135, but that happened after the 707 was flying. The 707 was funded entirely out of profits.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by samatman on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:33PM (#17268956)
Walter, you didn't say the 747 wasn't profitable, you said it wasn't subsidized.

Boeing is subsidized by the USG, there's no realistic debate on that. That subsidy applies across their product line.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:44PM (#17269062)
I'd appreciate it if you could be specific about government funding for the 747.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by _Codemonkeyism on Tuesday June 19, 2018 @05:53AM (#17345137)
I'd appreciate if you could show how the credit rating, stocks, employee training and business management of the civilian part and the military part of Boeing are two things. Additionally it would be nice to show the R&D firewall between the military and civilian parts of Boeing.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by vkou on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:38PM (#17269003)
The 747 only exists because of subsidies and defense contracts. If the US government were not heavily involved in the industry, we'd all be flying in Airbus jets.

These subsidies made the development of the 747 possible.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @04:22PM (#17269363)
You'll need some evidence for that.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by vkou on Friday June 08, 2018 @06:38PM (#17270300)
Look at the history of Boeing [1]. It's all government contracts, with the technologies and designs developed for them being re-used in their commercial offerings.

Without cost-plus contracting paying for cutting-edge R&D, they would have been about as capable of building airplanes as I am, in my garage. Their entire business is built on millions of hours of engineering experience in building planes for the military, applied to the commercial sector.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing#1930s_and_1940s

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by WalterBright on Friday June 08, 2018 @06:49PM (#17270362)
> It's all government contracts ... Their entire business

That's not what your source says at all. Boeing, for example, developed the first modern airliner in the 1930's. Pretty much all airliners derive from that. In fact, you can reasonably argue the other way - Boeing's military designs derived from their airliners. This is certainly the case for the B-17 and the KC-135.

Please identify the military technology and subsidy in the 747, and where the money came from to build the Everett plant.

Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by _Codemonkeyism on Tuesday June 19, 2018 @05:55AM (#17345144)
The money came from corporate debt which was on very favorable terms because of the government cash flow for military contracts. The other part came from investors who invested into Boeing because of growing stock prices due to military contracts.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by tim333 on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:24AM (#17266346)
Well, I think kind of mixed results for the brand. It shows we can build the largest plane (good) and use subsidies for unprofitable stuff (less good).
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by _Codemonkeyism on Friday June 08, 2018 @11:51AM (#17266623)
Like everyone else, e.g. Boeing. IMHO better direct subsidies than indirect ones with 10% defence spending and trailer parks. But YMMV.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by pasbesoin on Friday June 08, 2018 @01:57PM (#17268014)
Why has it not caught on for cargo? Too inefficient? Too much investment in support facilities, tooling, staff required -- and/or too insecure? (Regarding the latter, no one's going to buy a couple of bargain basement priced planes, in the face of support requirements.)
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by jandrese on Friday June 08, 2018 @03:36PM (#17268988)
IIRC the cargo doors are too small and the space is broken up by a structural component (the second floor). The 747 was designed from the outset to be converted to a cargo hauler (hence the cockpit mounted on top) so it's much easier for a heavy lifter to work with.
Re:A decade after debut, first A380 jumbos to be broken up by larkeith on Friday June 08, 2018 @02:05PM (#17268127)
According to another comment [1], it's because their cargo mass is not as large as their volume, relatively to other planes.

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17266194