I'm not entirely understanding your point. You state that Microsoft's fear has been that their next major competitor will be an independent/hobbyist, yet then go on to describe how they've made life great for these guys while simultaneously putting the squeeze on more established studios. And I generally agree with this, though I don't think it's particularly nefarious - it's the established studios that can afford to drop 4 figures a seat a year on licenses - by trying to charge that to independents, they mostly just push people potential customers away from their toolchain.

A really great example of this is the fact that they now give away Visual Studio Professional (rebranded to 'community') for free and even allow unrestricted commercial development/usage for independent studios. I don't recall their definition of independent precisely, but it's something like <= 4 developers, with gross revenue < $1 million/year - the exact definition is similarly fair.