I certainly encourage everybody to consult the source material! Man, this is a blog, opinion by default not perfect.
But when I hear the keyword "major advances" I'm highly suspicious. I had seen already so many such "major advances" that never went beyond a circle of self citing clique.
Re:AI winter is well on its way
by evrydayhustling on Wednesday May 30, 2018 @12:27AM
(#17185067)
As a very concrete "major advance" consider Google Translate's tiny language models [1] that can beam to your phone, live in a few megabytes, and translate photographed text for you with low power usage. This was done with incredibly expensive centralized training, but checks every meaningful box for "scalable" AI.
[1] https://ai.googleblog.com/2015/07/how-google-translate-squee...
- Improvement is hard to define consistently. Sometimes, improving classification accuracy by 0.5% means reducing error by 20%, and makes economic applications that have 100x the value or frequency of use.
- Resources used in training can be amortized over billions of times the same model is reused (much more cheaply). So even achieving an epsilon improvement in the expected utility of each inference can justify a massive increase in training cost.
- Some other notions of "better results" or "less expensive" include amount of training data required, social fairness of results, memory required or power used during inference, and so on. And there are major advances in current research on each of these better formalized axes!
That last bit is what is so frustrating in reading an article like this. The author is sweeping aside with vague arguments a great deal of work that has been written and justified to a much much higher standard of rigor (not just the VCs we all like to snark about). Readers should beware of trusting a summary like this without engaging directly with the source material.