I just rejected a path to management a couple of months ago after trying a lead role for a few months and deciding it's not a good fit for what I want to do. I really hope I didn't screw myself over for the future, but on the other hand if the only way I'll have a future in this industry when I get older is in management roles I don't like I may as well move on to something else at that point.

No one will even talk to you about a management position, without already having been a manager, no matter how much experience you have as a developer. The only path to management is to acquire it from the inside.

This is the absolute truth. I've been a lead or performing the role of a lead for most of my career. Recently I started taking on management responsibilities, then I got a new VP who decided I needed a manager because I didn't have the experience. I've seen people who can't manage their way out of a paper bag, but seemingly despite the fact that I've been filling the role for the past year, I'm not qualified for it. It's very frustrating.

Your new manager is very likely to be a friend of the VP.