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Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by tlb on Thursday May 03, 2018 @03:22PM (#16988984)
The underlying motivation for NIMBY is that people who own houses want their value to go up, and for their neighborhood to be too expensive for poor people so that their public schools will be well-funded and full of other upwardly mobile kids, and for their streets and parks not to be crowded.

It's a perfectly rational set of motivations. It's the same reason people move to nicer neighborhoods in the first place. With limited development over period of time you get the benefits of living in a more expensive neighborhood, without having paid the premium for it.

These arguments don't play well in public, especially in a socially progressive city like SF, so the rhetoric gets confusing. NIMBY groups sometimes float arguments such as: building more housing will make neighborhoods less affordable.

Some well-meaning progressive people who don't understand supply and demand are fooled by such arguments, and support NIMBY policies too, so it's not just homeowners. In the end, most people don't know what to think, and gravitate to the status-quo (ie, limited development.)

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by nradov on Thursday May 03, 2018 @05:10PM (#16990008)
This is a pernicious stereotype and mostly wrong. Have you ever actually talked to a NIMBY? The most committed NIMBYs have lived in the same place for decades and have no plans to sell. They don't care much about property values.

What they do care about are traffic, parking, noise, school overcrowding, and other quality of life issues. Some people simply don't like living in densely populated areas. If you want to win over the NIMBYs then you have to address their concerns rather than just demonizing them as greedy property owners.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by eldavido on Thursday May 03, 2018 @06:28PM (#16990591)
My wife's grandmother is a CA NIMBY. Prop 13 and all.

She just wants things to continue how they are. Paying taxes on her 1970s property value, living in the same place, etc.

I'm pro-YIMBY but I can't say I don't see the NIMBY's point. If you're some average Joe who moved into Cupertino, and now some crazy number of people commute to work through your neighborhood, and you're going to get high-rises everywhere, and the prices of everything around you (groceries, restaurants, gas, etc) will skyrocket, you might not want it.

At bottom I view all of this as a tug-of-war between the whole tech employment system and CA's political environment. Overall I'm pro-YIMBY but you do have to admit the absurdity of trying to cram ever more people into smaller and smaller space when the work is perhaps the easiest to do remotely that there ever was. It all seems sort of silly.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by api on Thursday May 03, 2018 @07:38PM (#16990981)
LA/OC and SF are global mega-cities full of people who seem to want to live in small towns in the country, yet choose to live in global mega-cities. It's weird.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by timr on Thursday May 03, 2018 @08:07PM (#16991112)
It's not weird. SF wasn't a "global mega city" until perhaps the late 90s (it's honestly pretty debatable that it is one today).

If you purchased property in a quaint, romantic seaside town in 1980, and starting in 2012 the global tech industry decided it wanted to make that small town into New York, why wouldn't you oppose it? I'm not saying I agree, but the motivation is perfectly rational.

Honestly, the only irrational thing here is the desire of the global tech industry to cram itself in a 50-square mile patch of land on a peninsula in the Pacific ocean when it could go literally anywhere in the world.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by api on Friday May 04, 2018 @09:49AM (#16994573)
Hmm... yes I can see that perspective from long-time residents.

Thing is I grew up in the Midwest in the 90s-2000s and SF always felt like a global mega-city in my mind up there with New York and London. That's how I always pictured it mentally even though I knew it wasn't as big. I was just so influenced by the culture it had exported since the 60s counterculture all the way up through 80s-90s hacker/tech culture, etc.

Socioeconomically it's a city that is (was?) poised to become an "alpha global city," but it's possible that the NIMBY-driven excessive and premature housing cost explosion has destroyed that. I already feel like a lot of what made SF great has been driven away. I don't live there, which in a way might make my view more objective. The city no longer seems to be the beacon of culture or intellect that it once was. Maybe for the NIMBYs that was the goal, but in keeping the city the way it was physically they might have succeeded in destroying the way it was socially.

I live in SoCal now and like it down here too. I strongly support action on the housing crisis to prevent SF's real estate hyperinflation cancer from spreading down here. It already has to some extent, but San Angeles (what I call LA/OC/Riverside/SanDiego) has what may be a non-metastatic non-terminal case that could still be treated with a dose of chemo.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by timr on Friday May 04, 2018 @12:37PM (#16995926)
I don't actually oppose development (in SF, or California at large). I just hate the hypocrisy and callous, self-interested rhetoric around this subject, and don't believe construction will be effective at lowering prices on timescales meaningful to any of us. SF will have to continue building through at least a few more boom/bust cycles for that to happen.

"Socioeconomically it's a city that is (was?) poised to become an "alpha global city," but it's possible that the NIMBY-driven excessive and premature housing cost explosion has destroyed that. I already feel like a lot of what made SF great has been driven away."

I completely sympathize, but here's the thing: now that I've lived in a number of different cities, it's become obvious to me just how comically limited San Francisco actually is. If you go to London, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Paris...you see these massive, sprawling cities with incredible transit systems and infrastructure. SF is a dinky little geographical backwater. It's landlocked (i.e. "supply limited"), with terrible transit and worse traffic. It's not a place that wants to be a global mega city, nor could it be one if it wanted to be.

I firmly believe that the real solution to the acute housing crisis in SF is other half of the demand equation: eventually, the tech industry is going to come to its senses and begin relocating. It has to happen.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by eldavido on Friday May 04, 2018 @02:17PM (#16996876)
Only when it has to. Nobody likes change.

Apple's going to be here for a while, they can afford the salaries people are demanding to be here.

The trend is already clear and accelerating for smaller firms. No startups can afford to hire here on a 500k seed. You'd be paying 200k/head all-in, you can't even run a 4-person company 18 months on that.

The bigcos will be slow and conservative like they are with everything. But change is already very obviously underway.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by eldavido on Thursday May 03, 2018 @11:25PM (#16991994)
Yeah. I think you and I pretty much completely agree.

Like, I'm probably pro-development on balance, but it seems like a pretty two-sided issue to me. You can look at all the money the companies bring in, the tax revenue, the good jobs, but there are also 50 or 100 or whatever thousand people commuting to work every day. I don't think any town could manage that level of growth well without becoming a completely different place, and not what its residents signed up for. Then layer on all the knock-on effects, like escalating property taxes, overcrowding of schools, huge and growing demand for living spaces, escalating traffic everywhere, and a one-company monoculture overtaking your town, where every birthday party and backyard barbecue is going to turn into talking about work, and it doesn't seem like a great deal.

I think the tech industry is completely stupid to put up with this. It concentrates all the prosperity in one place, forces huge inflation due to contention for everything, and it all ultimately cascades to huge wage inflation.

I am so impressed by Amazon's HQ2 plan. They seem to be the one company willing to do what others aren't because it makes sense.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by tmh79 on Friday May 04, 2018 @12:44PM (#16995978)
commercial enterprise in SF didn't start in 2012,

GAP global HQ, Levi Strauss global HQ, PG and E HQ, Wells Fargo global HQ, Charles Schwab global HQ, Pottery Barn/Williams Sonoma...

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by eldavido on Friday May 04, 2018 @02:14PM (#16996837)
The top five US public companies are Apple, Google, facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon. Three of them are HQ'd here. Netflix isn't top-5 by market cap but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets there before long, maybe displacing Microsoft.

You can certainly make that argument but it's on a whole different level now. Apple is earning 60-80 billion in profit per quarter. Many of the companies you list don't even have market caps that high.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by timr on Friday May 04, 2018 @12:47PM (#16995994)
Yes, business existed in San Francisco prior to 2012.

This latest housing crisis began in 2012.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by dangjc on Thursday May 03, 2018 @06:27PM (#16990583)
It's probably not possible to win over NIMBYs. Incoming population will always create more traffic. Taller buildings always overshadow something. They have almost no interest in letting in more people.

The key is recognizing that it is an inherently selfish constituency, and you have to give voice to the people who don't yet live there or who are renters and less likely to vote or attend city council meetings. The homeownership rate in CA is already bordering just half (53.8%) and decreasing, so this is a growing constituency which just needs to be activated. That's why there's a need to remove local control on density limits, as the constituency probably exists at the state or regional level, but not so much at the individual neighborhood level.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by Kalium on Friday May 04, 2018 @03:07AM (#16992749)
> This is a pernicious stereotype and mostly wrong. Have you ever actually talked to a NIMBY? The most committed NIMBYs have lived in the same place for decades and have no plans to sell. They don't care much about property values.

I have. Among other things, they like to ramble on about the importance of neighborhood character. They're also reliably very, very vague on what they actually think that means. In my experience, it's functionally impossible to address concerns that people refuse to communicate, no matter how much sympathy, empathy, compassion, and kindness you engage them with.

I often find myself thinking "neighborhood character" is code for "freeze my world in amber" and "keep people with different skin color away".

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by toephu2 on Thursday May 03, 2018 @06:41PM (#16990685)
This exactly. Who doesn't want to live in a nice neighborhood and have their kids goto good schools? Publicly it may not be a popular stance, but you can bet your bucket that privately this is what most homeowners and aspiring homeowners desire.

And guess what? Most tech workers in the Bay Area want to own a home in a nice neighborhood if they don't own one already.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by barsonme on Thursday May 03, 2018 @08:56PM (#16991365)
> and for their neighborhood to be too expensive for poor people

Come on, this (specifically) is untrue. Your average NIMBY homeowner isn't trying to maliciously price poor folks out. The closest you can get to that would be wanting to prevent their property value from decreasing because of eyesores.

While that can be problematic in its own right, it's not malice directed specifically towards folks who make less than $N per year. You'd find the same aversion if somebody making 2x their salary left their home in a shambles.

Folks buy homes partially as an investment, and understandably they have aversions to things that could damage their investment.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by sushid on Thursday May 03, 2018 @03:28PM (#16989043)
But if they want public infra to be well funded, then they have to pay their taxes. For the older houseowners, they're paying a fraction of the taxes they should be paying. They can't have their cake and eat it too!
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by guiolo on Thursday May 03, 2018 @05:26PM (#16990125)
> Some well-meaning progressive people who don't understand supply and demand are fooled by such arguments, [...]

For the laws of supply and demand to be accurate they require that only quantity and price changes. The housing market in popular areas, other than being inelastic, tends to suffer from demand shifts. There is nothing in economics saying that building more housing can't result in neighborhoods being less affordable.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by tlb on Thursday May 03, 2018 @05:52PM (#16990319)
Can you explain the mechanism by which building more housing causes neighborhoods to become less affordable?
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by eldavido on Thursday May 03, 2018 @06:31PM (#16990618)
There's a popular meme that it makes an area more desirable, therefore increasing property prices. And there's probably some truth to that.

What this fails to consider is that, if a bunch of people are moving to an area, they have to go SOMEWHERE, so it's not a "here vs. there" question, it's "which here will it be?" Proponents like to believe they can somehow put people "elsewhere" without realizing the poor always get screwed when rents rise, and they absolutely will rise everywhere in an uncontrolled and chaotic fashion, if more supply doesn't come to market.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by Kalium on Friday May 04, 2018 @11:57AM (#16995572)
For plenty of people, so long as the answer is "not near me" then the details are irrelevant. You can see the policy mess that results.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by eldavido on Friday May 04, 2018 @02:20PM (#16996913)
Typical collective action problem. Everybody wants to move here but nobody wants to house them.

At some point the business community just has to pull a Bezos and be like, OK guys, fine, you don't want us here, we're packing up, bye. Then see what happens when all those pension and infrastructure payments come due. Hilarity will ensue.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by CodeWriter23 on Thursday May 03, 2018 @11:12PM (#16991953)
The same mechanism that fills the new capacity realized by increasing the number of lanes on a highway. Utilization increases to fill available capacity.

That’s the fallacy here, that more housing is going to meet or exceed the demand hyper growth-focused companies will continue to produce for employees.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by guiolo on Thursday May 03, 2018 @07:20PM (#16990883)
As I said, a shift in demand. Yes, if you increase supply and if nothing else changes there is a decrease in price. But if you increase supply and the area therefor e.g. becomes more popular among people who earn more money or there is more investment in that area, then you have a shift in demand which can lead to an area becoming less affordable. [0]

[0] https://opentextbc.ca/principlesofeconomics/chapter/3-2-shif...

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by manfredo on Friday May 04, 2018 @03:41AM (#16992865)
I think it's the other way around. Cities become more desirable to live in (thus causing housing prices to rise). Developers see a new market and capitalize on it.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by s73v3r_ on Thursday May 03, 2018 @05:39PM (#16990228)
I'm gonna say that anyone who throws out something like "people who don't understand supply and demand" likely doesn't understand them past the ultra-simplistic view presented in Econ 101.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by manfredo on Friday May 04, 2018 @03:40AM (#16992861)
Even if we accept the premise that the housing market mysteriously transcends the rules of supply and demand, the pidgeonhole principle is going to come into effect. How is San Francisco going to accommodate 5-10 thousand new residents each year when only 2-3 thousand units of housing are added each year. Even if we ignore price, there just isn't enough space unless we build more housing.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by s73v3r_ on Friday May 04, 2018 @12:58PM (#16996104)
I'm saying that the rules of supply and demand are not as simple and as clear cut in reality as they are presented in Econ 101.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by tlb on Thursday May 03, 2018 @05:55PM (#16990344)
The simplistic view is correct almost all time. Given a fixed demand curve, more supply leads to lower prices and less supply leads to higher prices. Exceptions can exist in special circumstances, but they are rare and usually short-term.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by s73v3r_ on Thursday May 03, 2018 @06:14PM (#16990498)
Not when it comes to human behavior it's not. The simplistic view tends to assume everyone is a perfectly rational actor, and that there aren't other forces at play.
Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by pessimizer on Thursday May 03, 2018 @05:39PM (#16990220)
> The underlying motivation for NIMBY is that people who own houses want their value to go up, and for their neighborhood to be too expensive for poor people so that their public schools will be well-funded and full of other upwardly mobile kids, and for their streets and parks not to be crowded.

It's people who own houses that are YIMBYs, because removing zoning restrictions causes land value to go up. It's people who live in them who are NIMBYs, because they fear density in their neighborhoods will lower their quality of life, and that they will eventually be forced to sell due to a rise in property taxes as a result of their property values rising.

If they're old, that's a scary proposition. If they're young enough that they have kids in the public schools, they're probably young enough that they won't have a problem selling their home for a boatload of profit and moving to another exclusive neighborhood.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by tlb on Thursday May 03, 2018 @06:08PM (#16990448)
It depends on how supply is increased. If you allow single-unit housing stock to be converted to multi-unit, that causes existing homes to rise in price as you say. But rezoning industrial buildings to high-density residential causes existing homes to drop in price. I believe the solution in SF will mostly be the latter, such as converting warehouses in the Mission into lofts.

Also, California's weird laws mean that property taxes don't go up much even when the value of houses rise a lot.

So most NIMBY homeowners are genuinely defending against property values dropping.

Re:Stripe to donate $1M to California Yimby by wbl on Thursday May 03, 2018 @06:04PM (#16990415)
In California property taxes are fixed.