> It would be weird to see a large fluctuation in exports-- why would Syrian consumers suddenly begin demanding or abandoning their use of rubbing alcohol? Demand is most likely constant.

Did you account for the effect of trade sanctions on fluctuations of imports / exports?

I’m no world leader, but if I was subjected to trade sanctions and international scrutiny I’d get critical health supplies in large enough quantities in case they also stop trading those with me in the future.