News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by kqr on Thursday April 19, 2018 @05:30AM (#16874498)
In the first case, I guess what's happening is that when we pick two people randomly with uniform distribution, we expect, with equal probability, any combination of boys and girls: MM MF FF FM. When we observe a girl, we can exclude the case of two boys, so the remaining cases to consider are MF FF FM, where obviously only 1/3 of the cases is two girls.

So I guess what makes this counterintuitive is that we think of the example as independent variables actually affecting each other, but what happens is really that we're drawing from a collection without replacement, and obviously the mix of the collection is going to change as we do so.

This should apply also on a humankind, world-wide scale: if you have met three women in a row, the fourth person you meet is more likely to be a man. Gambler's fallacy! Or just drawing without replacement. A roulette table is drawing with replacement. :)

Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by KozmoNau7 on Thursday April 19, 2018 @08:59AM (#16875499)
But MF and FM in this case are the same?
Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by cecilpl2 on Thursday April 19, 2018 @11:26AM (#16876689)
No because children are distinguishable.

If you flip two coins, you get HH, HT, TH, and TT with equal probability. Try it.

Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by KozmoNau7 on Thursday April 19, 2018 @11:42AM (#16876819)
But the sequence is irrelevant.

HT is equal to TH, because in this situation we only care whether the two coins are equal to each other or different from each other.

Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by Dylan16807 on Thursday April 19, 2018 @09:30PM (#16881503)
It's the percent chance that matters, so it doesn't matter if you can distinguish them. The cases still exist with equal chance.
Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by KozmoNau7 on Friday April 20, 2018 @03:43AM (#16882901)
To elaborate, the situation as stated in the question is currently Hx, so HH and HT are the only possible results.
Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by Dylan16807 on Friday April 20, 2018 @03:34PM (#16887838)
You can calculate 50/50 but it's not by ignoring the difference between HT and TH.
Re:Shortest bit sequence that's never been sent over the Int... by KozmoNau7 on Friday April 20, 2018 @01:31AM (#16882365)
The first child is not an influencing factor on the second child. It's either a boy or a girl, 50/50.