For those who are not eligible for an early upgrade or who wish to buy iPhone as a gift, the prices are $499 (8GB), $599 (16GB), or $699 (32GB).
Source: http://store.apple.com/us/browse/home/shop_iphone/family/iph...
Now, Virgin Mobile (owned by Sprint) has a version of the MiFi with no contract and a $40/month plan for unlimited bandwidth (http://www.virginmobileusa.com/mobile-broadband/mifi-2200.ht...). Since I'm locked in for 1 more year paying an extra $20/month, I'll pay $240 extra than I should.
Given that assumption, and if you expect that your life won't change in a dramatic way that will require you to drop your cell phone plan in the next two years, there's really no downside to getting a subsidized device.
Phones and non-phone personal electronics are different market niches, because they attract different clienteles. Maybe in a decade when unlimited data is like $10/device that'll change, but for the foreseeable future, most non-upper-class people aren't going to have more than one phone contract per person.
Also, those are the exact same prices as the previous models of iPod Touch.
Here in Australia (http://www.icyte.com/saved/store.apple.com/320295) the iPhone is AU$859 - $999 (currently US$785-US$913). I believe in other countries it may be cheaper still...
The popular iPod Touch media player has been revamped at three price points - $229, $299, and $399 - all costing more than the iPhone, which does everything the Touch can plus make phone calls.
Articles have stated that Apple is paid for each activation by AT&T "up to $325 per phone"[1] or "$18/month ($432 over 2 years)"[2]
[1] http://www.zdnet.com/blog/mobile-gadgeteer/at-t-may-pay-appl...
[2] http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-9803657-37.html