I can never understand why people give advice like that. If they are right, nobody will remember or credit them, and if they are wrong they look terrible.

I certainly avoid making such statements, as I cannot bear the thought of my advice destroying the wealth of the people close enough to me to listen to me.

You do have to give him credit for leaving the article up. I think I'd be busy purging it from every internet cache I could find if I'd written something this confident and wrong.

Is that really so? My (maybe cynical) impression is exactly the opposite. Make a prediction (say, that the economy is doing great) and if you are right you get kudos, if you are wrong you get to go back on TV explaining why the "experts" got it wrong (forgetting the little bit that you did too).

I still can't quite understand why you keep hearing people who could predict nothing (say many economic "experts" or technology "analysts") and journalist still go to listen to their prediction like they are Delphi's Oracle.

I thought HD-DVD would win because it was the most accessible name for consumers. Perhaps if they'd named it DVD+HD it would have pulled it off :)

1. Write troll article, urging everyone to sell their stock.

2. Stock dips, buy as much as you can.

3. Wait 3 years.

4. Profit!

Wow, if my blog had this kind of clout, I'd retire early!