Agreed, and this is an area where the facts seem quite clear and I'm hoping that sanity will prevail by the time the dust settles. In fact, what I'm really hoping is that the whole Brexit mess will force the government to fix our immigration and visa system more generally. It's already insanely slow, complicated and unpredictable for those legitimately visiting or moving here more permanently from outside the EU, and that doesn't really help anyone.
For what it's worth, I have no idea where your characterisation of the desired future treatment of EU nationals as illegal immigrants come from, and I think your predictions here are unlikely to the point of being almost inconceivable. The government might have to pay lip service to immigration controls up to a point, but they've been doing that for years anyway. I can't believe even the current lot are foolish enough to undermine the NHS, the education system, the tech and creative sectors, and so on with the kind of draconian system you seem to be envisaging.
I'm not saying it will be an overnight collapse, but more likely a slow melting away of new business and gradual movement of e.g. Euroclearing.
Perhaps. That's certainly a possible outcome in the longer term. Presumably whatever happens in terms of Brexit, any transition, and then any final deal beyond that, the economies on both sides of the Channel are going to adapt in time.
In the short term it may be as simple as moving the flag which says where the company's HQ is and moving its taxpaying nexus inside the EU.
This I find less likely. Various EU governments, notably including the Germans (albeit under the previous administration), have made it very clear that they don't want to see that sort of "technical" movement. And it's going to be very hard for the financial services firms to play games if the national regulators in their new home state(s) want to cause problems for them.
*You're also underestimating the willingness of those financial businesses which are within the EU to be comfortable with UK competition.
Given the scale we're talking about here, I'm curious to know which financial businesses you classify as being "within the EU" at present.
A chunk of them already have moved country: https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/231364/percentage-o...
Not a majority, no, but it's inherently a very international business and the more money is at stake the more willing people will be to move.
It matters a great deal what the UK immigration regime will be after Brexit. The government has refused to give any clarity on this, and there are warning signs that the Home Office would very much like to start treating EU nationals as illegal immigrants. If no agreement is reached otherwise, it will be illegal for all those EU nationals to be employed, rent a house, or have a bank account.
I'm not saying it will be an overnight collapse, but more likely a slow melting away of new business and gradual movement of e.g. Euroclearing. In the short term it may be as simple as moving the flag which says where the company's HQ is and moving its taxpaying nexus inside the EU.
You're also underestimating the willingness of those financial businesses which are within the EU to be comfortable with UK competition.