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Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by fwdpropaganda on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @01:30PM (#16586560)
That's extremely interesting, thanks for sharing.

Think about the decision that he had to make in 2016. He had to choose between admiting his mistake and doubling down. The downside of admitting his mistake is that he's guaranteed to get negative points; the upside is that it will minimise futures downsides. By dubling down, he's guaranteed to reduce his negative points in 2016 but exposes himself to magnified upsides (if he's proven right) and downsides (if he's proven wrong) in the future.

Now think rationally how you'd choose. The second strategy is a lot riskier so it better have better return as well! But the second strategy can only have higher reward if you either believe high probability of future upsides (i.e. Theranos might be faking till you make it, but they'll make it) or low probability of future downsides (i.e. I'm not sure what's going on, but definitely not fraud). I submit that the only way that you could come to believe either is if you're hugely misinformed about the company.

I.e. that guy is just a bit incompetent.

Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by sulam on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @03:01PM (#16587342)
I think you're ignoring the iterated nature of the game he plays. He is looking for founders to fund -- deal flow is the lifeblood of any VC. This is a signal like many other, and what it says is "As an early stage investor I absolutely have your back."
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by iopuy on Thursday March 15, 2018 @05:15PM (#16596582)
Just curious where you heard the phrase "deal flow is the lifeblood of any VC". I read that exact line last night from a book.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by sulam on Sunday March 18, 2018 @10:29AM (#16612061)
Funny. I didn’t know I was quoting anything - this may just be an obvious statement to people who have investigated the economics of venture capital.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by jonny_eh on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @05:15PM (#16588363)
Seems fine for entrepreneurs running scams. Honest founders would rather work with honest VCs.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by nradov on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @01:52PM (#16586776)
Those kind of decisions are made on a purely emotional, reactive basis without going through the rational game theory analysis you laid out. Most wealthy investors are no more rational than the rest of us.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by jjoonathan on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @02:41PM (#16587208)
An iterated game will tune emotional responses to achieve the same end.

Draper has no doubt had many chances in his life to provide negative but true and positive but false comments on his investments. If society punishes negative but true comments he's damn well going to notice and make fewer of them. If society further fails to punish positive but false comments about his investments, he's not going to invest the mental resources that would be required to avoid them.

A little experience substitutes for a lot of strategy.

Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by fwdpropaganda on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @06:33PM (#16588946)
What do you mean, "than the rest of us". That's how I think, so I have no reason to believe that other people can't do the same.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by nradov on Thursday March 15, 2018 @10:38PM (#16598164)
How sure are you that you really think that way? Most people make decisions based on emotion and intuition, then rationalize those decisions after the fact and fool themselves into believing they were rational from the start. Since human memory is so unreliable it's almost impossible to accurately determine which decision making process you actually followed.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by taurath on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @01:37PM (#16586628)
My understanding is that competence only matters when other people are giving you money, and doesn't matter at all when you're giving people money. I think you're really overestimating the downsides.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by fwdpropaganda on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @01:51PM (#16586767)
Reputation is everything in this business. I think you're underestimating the downsides.
Re:Theranos, CEO Holmes, and Former President Balwani Charge... by taurath on Wednesday March 14, 2018 @03:51PM (#16587720)
Every VC has 100s of failures. He just proved that he will go to bat for his startups even if they're doing fishy stuff :P