Re:Magic Leap One Video – Diffractive Waveguides Confirmed
by gexla on Thursday February 15, 2018 @05:06AM
(#16382928)
> Huge expected value can also make people fools, without a scrap of real hope of future returns.
See also, Gambler's Ruin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin
That's only an issue if you are making bets such that a large loss will make you go bust. If you are facing that possibility, then you need to move down a level. If you can continue to make bets at your level, then the +EV will increase your roll over time.
Poker lessons.
Re:Magic Leap One Video – Diffractive Waveguides Confirmed
by nabla9 on Wednesday February 14, 2018 @10:21PM
(#16381666)
You don't have to know if any particular company has real changes or not, what you need is is reasonably good estimate of how likely you are a fool.
Re:Magic Leap One Video – Diffractive Waveguides Confirmed
by IntronExon on Wednesday February 14, 2018 @10:24PM
(#16381680)
That estimate made in ignorance of the relevant technology is all the answer you need as to foolishness.
Re:Magic Leap One Video – Diffractive Waveguides Confirmed
by zodiac on Thursday February 15, 2018 @03:09AM
(#16382551)
> Huge expected value can also make people fools, without a scrap of real hope of future returns
The probability of failure should already be factored into the term "expected return"
It’s not as though Google, to pick one example from your list, is some kind of techno-prophet; they’ve killed more projects than asteroids did dinosaurs.