Huge expected value can also make people fools, without a scrap of real hope of future returns. A lot of money has been flushed down a lot of glittery drains by many a smart person/org in the search for wealth. When you add subtle yet incredibly challenging technical hurdles buried deep within the hype, the odds of flushing greatly exceed fortune.

It’s not as though Google, to pick one example from your list, is some kind of techno-prophet; they’ve killed more projects than asteroids did dinosaurs.

> Huge expected value can also make people fools, without a scrap of real hope of future returns.

See also, Gambler's Ruin.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_ruin

That's only an issue if you are making bets such that a large loss will make you go bust. If you are facing that possibility, then you need to move down a level. If you can continue to make bets at your level, then the +EV will increase your roll over time.

Poker lessons.

You don't have to know if any particular company has real changes or not, what you need is is reasonably good estimate of how likely you are a fool.

That estimate made in ignorance of the relevant technology is all the answer you need as to foolishness.

> Huge expected value can also make people fools, without a scrap of real hope of future returns

The probability of failure should already be factored into the term "expected return"