No, it’s not the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. See my response to the other commenter in this thread forwarding (essentially) the same argument. You cannot claim that some event is reducible to chance just because it’s in a small minority of successes out of many more failures. There are stat arb funds which have beaten the market for decades consistently. HFT firms make millions of trades per day with a consistently positive win rate. No matter what you define as a trading event, the probablity analysis is not going to hold up.