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Re:Predicting outcomes for games of skill by redefining what... by morelandjs on Tuesday February 06, 2018 @05:04PM (#16320337)
I agree this is a critical feature that Elo ratings omit. Elo ratings are transitive, i.e. if I know the probability that A beats B and the probability that B beats C, then I know the probability that A beats C. It's almost certainly the case that non-linear "rock-paper-scissors" effects exist in professional sports.

The tricky bit is trying to estimate these effects with a finite number of samples or observations. Elo thrives on limited data.

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