News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by dsacco on Thursday February 01, 2018 @05:25PM (#16286518)
There are people who successfully predict how many e.g. iPhones are being sold. But they’re not publishing this information, because it’s very valuable. They’re mostly selling it to hedge funds and market research firms (or they work internally at those companies).

In other words: when you see someone publish a “forecast” that a particular company’s product isn’t doing well, the analysis is usually flawed. If it weren’t flawed, the market price of the analysis probably wouldn’t be “free.”

I’m speaking from experience - I know a quantitative researcher who successfully forecasted Apple’s iPhone sales to a fraction of a percent a few years ago (very clever method!), and I’ve personally done this with Tesla model sales/production.

Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by krrrh on Thursday February 01, 2018 @05:40PM (#16286640)
Horace Dediu at asymco.com has also consistently made pretty accurate predictions for Apple and publishes a lot of his reasoning for free, if anyone is interested in going beyond the mainstream financial press, which over-relies on sketchy reports from the supply chain.
Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by tedunangst on Thursday February 01, 2018 @06:51PM (#16287076)
Those who know don't talk. Those who talk don't know.
Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by csjr on Thursday February 01, 2018 @05:46PM (#16286690)
Makes sense! I would love to hear more about that method (if it's something you can talk about)
Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by icefox on Thursday February 01, 2018 @11:47PM (#16288493)
Couldn't you use the German tank problem to solve these?

For Tesla auto sales couldn't you just look at tesla vin numbers?

For iPhones, sample mac address's?

Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by dsacco on Friday February 02, 2018 @10:26AM (#16291216)
> For Tesla auto sales couldn't you just look at tesla vin numbers?

You’ve definitely intuited some of the method, yes :). The rest of it entails:

1) how to get all VINs both authoritatively and legally,

2) how to distinguish between valid VINs and assigned VINs,

3) how to reverse the actual revenue projection from the set of all assigned VINs.

The first requirement is the hardest. Tracking self-reported VIN delivery from users isn’t rigorous enough. You could use an endpoint and scrape from it, but how would you do it legally and reliably?

The second requirement is also difficult. Assuming you’ve found an authoritative source for valid VINs, how do you distinguish which VINs are assigned?

Once you have those two, the third requirement is mostly straightforward. You can implement your own VIN decoder using public NHTSA documentation, map each VIN field to options and prices across models, and track sequential VINs using the distinguishing method of requirement 2 on the data you’re getting from requirement 1.

Naturally, there are other ways to do this that don’t involve VINs at all.

Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by sumedh on Friday February 02, 2018 @06:52AM (#16289874)
Using satellite images to monitor parking lots, cargo ships. Maybe some satellites might be tracking how many trucks leave Apple factories in China.

Sometimes it's just good old illegal insider information.

Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by dsacco on Friday February 02, 2018 @10:24AM (#16291194)
Actually, my friend simply reverse engineered FedEx and UPS tracking numbers, then backtracked sequentially by ordering an iPhone every few weeks.

I say “simply” because it doesn’t require any of the infrastructure you mentioned, which is what the public typically associates with “alternative data.” It was actually quite impressive and novel at the time, and inspired other projects of mine.

I can talk about this now because (to my knowledge) it no longer works, though it did for a while. He was in charge of approximately $100M when he was working on this.

Re:Apple Reports First Quarter Results by sumedh on Friday February 02, 2018 @05:48PM (#16294868)
Interesting. When so much money is on the table people are going to be creative.