I think one thing people, especially on HN, need to remind themselves of is the price isn’t determined by what _you_ think, it’s determined by what _everyone else_ thinks.

This is the best comment. People here know the "value" but the market determines the "price".

I understand why people see the value proposition here and think these things are over-priced, its because people "trading" do not really have the depth and they are playing the market psychology game. For something new, this is more akin to Poker, at this time too many people are playing the people. The question is when the river card show up, who will remain standing.

The river card?

Last card in Texas Hold'em, after a final round of betting, if two players have not folded the winner is determined at showdown.

The most apt description I've heard for cryptocurrency markets is that it's a Keynesian beauty contest for blank drawings.

Same, pretty sure the whole team is buying (small) amounts of bitcoin. Reminds me of the story of the guy who dodged the great depression because he pulled his stocks when his taxi driver starting giving him tips.

That was Joe Kennedy. JFK's father

Not only did he pull out of stocks but he was shorting the market.

and the tips came from a shoeshine boy.

don't pay too much attention to stories like that, there are easily countless stories that serve as counterpoint. example, warren buffett mentioned several times in his writings that very often, it's the regular folks who are more capable of spotting potential new investments rather than institutional investors, because they can see businesses succeeding in the real world much sooner than institutional investors spot them on balance sheets.

I heard recently of form workers/construction workers giving a friend crypto tips. Its everywhere.

Yep. Moreso the MoneyGram announcement is not new news, this is their business model. I suspect the well timed press release had something to do with XRP sinking over the past few days.

The entire market sank over the past few days. MoneyGram couldn't have predicted the drop, and I'm not sure why they'd rush the press release to coincide with it.

For that to be true, Ripple's market cap would have to be in the trillions unless they invested half a million or even a quarter of a million dollars.

I think the price of 1 XRP is going to be somewhere between $5 and $10, $5 being more reasonable. The time to buy in was when it was less than a cent and nobody believed it would go anywhere. On a sidenote, I believe Ripple is made primarily by banks and I think the idea was to make it as close to USD as possible. If this is in fact true, it obviously will be overvalued even at $5.

With 100B XRP eventually in circulation, $10 would give it a preposterous market cap. The current price is based on only 38B tokens in circulation.

1. Nothing is preposterous in crypto. 2. Yes, I said $5 is more reasonable.

That's only about 12x the market cap now. I am sure the people investing don't think it's anywhere near preposterous to have a $1T market cap.