I'm not interested in your put options on BTC (nobody in their right mind would sell you that), but I would make a wager that the percent increase of total "market cap" of all "cryptocurrencies" (loosely defined as cryptographically secured tokens redeemable for fiat currency, e.g. coins listed on CoinMarketCap) at least 2 out of 3 of 5, 10, and 15 years from now exceeds the total "market cap" increase of the S&P 500 in the same period. I believe my bet more closely models the prediction I am making - that cryptocurrency gains will continue to outstrip S&P 500 gains.

I would take that bet, since I think 98% of the crypto's on this CoinMarketCap will be non-existent in 5 years.

I think you misunderstood me - I don't think that buying and holding any of the current tokens on CMC is a particularly good idea. You have a very very low chance of picking the ones that will be around in a few years. However, staying aware of what new development are coming around and trading into the new promising ones as they become successful may be a good growth strategy. I agree with you that 98%+ of the current coins will be dead in less than 5 years - but there will absolutely be new ones with an increasing amount of value.

There may well be a point in the coming months or years that the market cap of current crypto deflates - maybe by 90% or more - but new cryptocurrency applications and tokens will certainly exist in 5, 10, 15, and 100 years.