I don't know, anecdotally it seems that if I spent X calories exercising, my hunger will adjust until I consume roughly X extra calories.
The energy expenditure does account for waste, I think only about 20-25% of the energy spent is turned into mechanical output
In a thought experiment (where it's possible to know the exact amounts) -- do you think consuming exactly 2k kcal is perfectly even with burning exactly 2k kcal? IE, is there overhead to transform the energy? Does it account for physical/energy waste?