They're orthogonal dimensions. My fault that this isn't clearer.

Here's a simpler ordering of operations:

1. Start with the most valuable, highest-leverage thing you want to focus on. 2. Figure out what the riskiest bit of that thing is. Focus on de-risking it. 3. When you're de-risking (or more generally whenever you're just doing that thing), start simple. Beware of adding in unnecessary complexity.

You should work first on the riskiest part of the [guesstimated] most valuable thing.

Edit: [guesstimated]