It hasn't been a 1-for-1 replacement. At least for BA the 747 has been replaced by the A380, 777, and 787 on many routes. All 3 have different capacities to scale with demand; 787 < 777 < A380. And all 3 are more fuel efficient per passenger than the 747.

The first three are from countries where Eads doing well is a political thing: Britain Germany and France own chunks of airbus and have a lot invested in it doing well. The former flag carriers are only nominally independent from the state.

Tell me more about this nominal independence. The biggest state owner of IAG (BA’s corporate parent) is Qatar. Lufthansa is fully privatized. France owns ~15% of Air France-KLM.

There are more connections than ownership.

For example, an airline might get preferred access to airport berths. Governments, and officials of privatised government entities serve to organise and stabilise this sort of cartel.

European airlines prefer european airplanes; its a question of EU pride

So why is Ryanair flying a pure B737 fleet?

Like Boeing isn't internationally linked to the US, or "buy American" wasn't a thing...

> The first three are from countries where Eads doing well is a political thing: Britain Germany and France own chunks of airbus and have a lot invested in it doing well. The former flag carriers are only nominally independent from the state.

OTOH, Lufthansa was the initial customer for 747-8.

So while you correctly pointed out that influence, carriers aren't quite as dependent on their host nations as you assume.

Qantas are currently replacing 747s with a fleet of A380s and 777s

Qantas don’t have any 777s (or any 777 orders). I think that going so hard on the A380 and never getting any 777s was one of their biggest mistakes. Now they’re doing better having cancelled their remaining A380 orders (after they got 12) and have started using the A330 on some routes with smaller demand and have finally got their first 787.

That, and their Emirates alliance have finally turned things around (they weren’t profitable internationally for several years until about two years ago).

What do you mean "started using the A330" ? It has been Qantas's go-to medium-haul airliner more than 10 years, long enough they they've all been refurbished recently with "A380 like" interiors.