We’re Going to Need More Lithium

Re:We’re Going to Need More Lithium by thecabinet on Wednesday December 27, 2017 @07:03AM (#16014273)

Assuming lithium reserves work anything like oil reserves, the quantity of reserves depends on market process. When oil sells for $20/bb, oil that costs more than that to extract doesn't count towards the reserves. As the price goes up, the reserves increase, because you can extract oil from more challenging circumstances. This is why we've had 20-30 years of oil reserves for the last 50 years.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We’re Going to Need More Lithium by tomxor on Wednesday December 27, 2017 @08:21AM (#16014588)

That is a big assumption but yes, I understand that "reserves" != "all", and you rightly describe the interrelationship between price and what is considered "extractable".

Even so, as an initial "world reserves" estimate, it's absolutely puny. Take into consideration that past the first "dozen years" demand will increase massively, at full adoption lithium will likely be short lived as a primary material to base batteries on. We don't know the extraction potential for whatever the "remaining" and "unknown" reserves are but thankfully EVs aren't intrinsically tied to lithium like ICE is to oil, so if lithium becomes overmined we are more likely to switch to other materials than go to extremes to extract more of it.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We’re Going to Need More Lithium by monort on Wednesday December 27, 2017 @07:37AM (#16014402)

Oil alarmism existed as early as 1919: http://papers.sae.org/190011/

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We’re Going to Need More Lithium by sgift on Wednesday December 27, 2017 @10:16AM (#16015168)

So, it took almost 100 years until the mainstream understood what should have been blatantly obvious to anyone who thinks about it: Oh right. Oil is limited.

I mean, sure, if we search long and hard enough we will probably almost always be able to find/produce something, but I don't think asking 1 million per liter of gas would be such a great idea.

Hoping that there will always be a scientific breakthrough just "right in time" to solve our resource problems is great. I love optimism. It's also extremely irresponsible to depend on it.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We’re Going to Need More Lithium by coldtea on Wednesday December 27, 2017 @10:18AM (#16015178)

You mean "oil cautionism" based on the very well established fact that reserves are limited (and it took the billions of years to be created)?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We’re Going to Need More Lithium by Roboprog on Wednesday December 27, 2017 @02:43PM (#16017414)

Or perhaps “only” 200 million years or so

But yah, a one time thing for us.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:We’re Going to Need More Lithium by srtjstjsj on Wednesday December 27, 2017 @11:16AM (#16015586)

That means that "oil reserves" is a short-term financial concept that has no bearing on long-term planning discussions.

[ Parent | on HN ]