Re:China to Overtake U.S. Economy by 2032
by igravious on Tuesday December 26, 2017 @01:56AM
(#16007539)
To see if you are correct I downloaded an executive summary of the report.
Their model does track energy prices – heading: “CHEAP ENERGY TO DRIVE GROWTH IN THE 2020s” and the impact of climate change – heading: “CLIMATE CHANGE STARTS TO IMPEDE GROWTH IN SOME COUNTRIES” among other things. I presume their model must track demographic shifts globally (it'd be a pretty crap model if it didn't) – heading: “AUSTRALIA RISES TO BECOME
ELEVENTH LARGEST ECONOMY AS POPULATION RISES” based on what I'm seeing in the summary.
I don't know how they'd factor in crises such as conflicts and financial meltdowns given that you could make a lot of money if you could forecast such things. I guess they have to adjust their models in the face of new realities. I suppose we have to prefix their report with an "all other things being equal" hedge but they do appear to have taken into account obvious enough factors (energy/climate/population/…) which they can kind of keep track of.
Their model does track energy prices – heading: “CHEAP ENERGY TO DRIVE GROWTH IN THE 2020s” and the impact of climate change – heading: “CLIMATE CHANGE STARTS TO IMPEDE GROWTH IN SOME COUNTRIES” among other things. I presume their model must track demographic shifts globally (it'd be a pretty crap model if it didn't) – heading: “AUSTRALIA RISES TO BECOME ELEVENTH LARGEST ECONOMY AS POPULATION RISES” based on what I'm seeing in the summary.
I don't know how they'd factor in crises such as conflicts and financial meltdowns given that you could make a lot of money if you could forecast such things. I guess they have to adjust their models in the face of new realities. I suppose we have to prefix their report with an "all other things being equal" hedge but they do appear to have taken into account obvious enough factors (energy/climate/population/…) which they can kind of keep track of.