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A comment on Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bitcoin.

Re:Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bit... by sdy on Friday December 22, 2017 @12:01PM (#15988931)
I believe the man is essentially saying that past performance does not indicate future performance. Ironically, most of the comments here are saying he is wrong, because of his past performance.

Can we instead talk about his specific points and why they are wrong instead of just focusing on his past performance?

Also, it looks to me that his performance was good during the great recession. So if another recession is coming, shouldn't the critics here be flocking to him? Or is everyone stuck in the current bull market feedback loop?

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Re:Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bit... by jjeaff on Friday December 22, 2017 @05:04PM (#15991281)
Seeing as the market always recovers and then some, you are going to need to make very, very good returns in the downturns to make up for all the list potential on the upside.

In other words, the overall return of the markets over their entire lifetime is positive, not negative.

It would be great to ride the bull and then switch to the bear in a down market. But that would require timing the market.

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Re:Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bit... by BadCookie on Saturday December 23, 2017 @12:12AM (#15993031)
The market always recovers? Japan must not have gotten the memo. Or is the U.S. too special to ever have the same problems as Japan?
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Re:Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bit... by jjeaff on Tuesday December 26, 2017 @05:13PM (#16011379)
By "the market", I was referring to the US Markets. We have a few hundred years of history of always recovering. Japan is the special case though. Small and landlocked, rather xenophobic with an aging population. Things that could happen in the US, but the US is just a completely different, and much larger animal.
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Re:Three Delusions: Paper Wealth, a Booming Economy, and Bit... by olegkikin on Friday December 22, 2017 @04:58PM (#15991242)
Most people think he is unreliable as a source of market prediction, because he has been absolutely horrible at it, which is somehow his main occupation.
[ Parent | on HN ]