Not that I think you're wrong, but every person who did that in 2014, 2015 or 2016 probably begs to differ.

In fact, if they sell today, they'd probably be set for life.

Guaranteed anyone foolish enough to bet their mortgage at those times, bought high and sold low in fear of losing it all. They are not the rational type.

Maybe. I don't necessarily think taking a huge risk with substantial upside is always an idiotic thing to do.

Yes it might be a gamble and speculation, but get it right in a bubble and you're (sort of) set for life. You can make a good calculated bet and see it pay off. Any engineer on $100k to 200k a year can probably afford to put $200k in crypto and recover if it evaporates.

If you compare to certain high risk shares trading on the stock market (i.e. some tech and biotech shares), even though crypto might have a 10x upside, I don't think investing in crypto is 10 times as risky. If you're aggressive, you're probably better off investing in crypto today than in the market.

Ok, so for majority of the rest of the population, without access to six figure incomes. Bitcoin is completely irrational. There is a guy in my shop right now, a shop full of guys making maybe $15 an hr at the high end, handing out his "bitcoin consultant" business card. These are the people making irrational bets on this, while those invested years ago are profiting on their foolish dreams. People with no money to be wasting, are wasting their money.

Yes, of course. And since they don't put in a significant amount of money, even if their investment were to go 50x, they probably wouldn't cash out and keep holding. That is a clear mistake, as it can be dangerous not to exit.

I was just pointing out that it can be profitable riding a bubble, as long as you're careful about it. I have an old money friend who put in a few million last year. That's exciting stuff.

One thing I wonder: since they own so little, do they even move the market?

Alone no, but the combined yes. There are a few big players that manipulate this market. The Winklevoss did it, and caused the first bubble in 2013. Then the market fell off the cliff, and sat a $200 for the next 3 years, until someone bought up tons at around $250-300 mark, and here we are again.