Re:Internet protocols are changing
by pfranz on Tuesday December 12, 2017 @02:06PM
(#15908432)
How is that disingenuous? I don't think it matters what the curve looks like when it spans 10 years and ends up at 20%. There were implementations released 10 years previous to the graph's start. I wasn't implying it would never happen, just that even for something that's inevitable like IPv6, adoption is glacial.
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I think disingenuous is the wrong word; but the curve does matter: 20% in 10 years indicates 100% in 50 years if the curve's a line, but it's not.
I dove into the world of curve fitting (wee!) and my prediction[1] for 95% IPv6 adoption is around the year 2025: https://imgur.com/a/LyBJn (fitted to the logistic curve[2], x=0 is basically 2010, y is percent adoption)
[1] Which you should completely trust because I've been doing this for all of 20 minutes!
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function#In_economics...
Thanks for taking the time to do that!
Lets say 20% adoption means we're 40% of the way through the transition. The slope for IPv6 looks better and better every day, but overall it's not a great adoption story for tech that inevitably has to happen. (not to discourage or minimize the all the hard work done in getting IPv6 this far)