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Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by davidmr on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:29AM (#15878779)
Is there any currency or commodity or derivative for which that statement is not true? It seems self-evident that if you own a lot of something like gold, dollars, BTC, sterling, etc. and you sell it, its value relative to what you're selling it for declines.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by totalZero on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:43AM (#15878884)
That's a very intelligent point, but let's think specifically of BTC's utility as a store of value.

A comparable alternative may be gold, and it would be fair to say that the gold market could be heavily impacted by a few large holders who choose to sell their holdings. However, those holders tend to be governments. Many of the top holders are fairly representative governments, so initialization of a mass gold dumping is less likely than if they were individuals or small corporate entities, I think. They would be throwing away value that belongs to a large group of citizens, and there would be trade ramifications because their trading partners would take it in the face on their own reserves.

The real reason many people don't initiate aggressive sales is that, barring a mass exodus from a collapsing financial instrument where the price is going to drop anyway, nobody wants to hurt their own mark-to-market by pushing down the prices. The only exception to this would be a fire sale where there is a mandate to liquidate a holding in order to return value to creditors.

Not only that, but price impact is often reversed by other, later trading. So even if your intention is to put selling pressure on the instrument, it may not have a very lasting impact on the price.

However, if you assume everyone else will follow suit and race to the bottom, then there's a definite first mover advantage. That's almost certainly not the case for precious metals, and generally not the case for currencies issued by stable and relatively uncorrupt governments, but it may be the case for BTC because it is new, volatile, and unsecured/unbacked.

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by opportune on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:51AM (#15878951)
It only happens if the market is not there to "catch" the sell off. Say there are 1 000 000 X and the current market price is $100 each. If I have 40% of all X and I go to sell it, I first sell to everyone willing to buy X at $100 each. Then I sell to everyone willing to buy X at $99.9 each, etc. Once we stop selling at price Y, we've essentially sold X to everyone who would buy X for between Y and $100.

Note that this implies selling off X always decreases its price. This is not true if Y is $100 (people were willing to buy more X at $100 than we had X at all), but even so a market usually has something like a bid-ask spread, so if we were trading a small amount of X we could maybe even sell it all off without moving the big price.

So really, whether this crashes the market for X depends on how much people value X. If only a few people thought X was valuable, they probably all own it, so it's worthless. If everyone wants X and are willing to pay just a bit less to get it, Y doesn't really change much from $100. There are also non-currencies like equities that essentially have a price floor: below the price floor there is basically no risk that the item will ever be worth less than that (this could be determined by something like the total value of property owned by a business).

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by montecarl on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:27AM (#15879284)
You can look and see exactly how much the price of BTC would move on an exchange by looking at its order book. GDAX's charts[1] makes it easy to see this infact. You can just mouse over the order book and see how many $ it would take to move the price to a certain level.

[1] https://www.gdax.com/trade/BTC-USD

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by FLUX-YOU on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:35AM (#15878825)
I'd bet that large holders of gold sell small amounts all the time without the market going nuts and kicking off volatility swings. But I could be wrong.

It's less the mechanism and the implication that people imply by following whales. Why should a store-of-value market react when someone sells a small amount regardless of their current holdings?

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by pc86 on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:52AM (#15878964)
I agree with you but this is an apples to oranges (or perhaps apples to 747s) comparison. The top 1000 holders of gold don't have anywhere near 40% of the market. Not to mention that 40% of the market for BTC is only a few million coins.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by FLUX-YOU on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:58AM (#15879014)
Certainly, but most of us have limited choice about what investments to make -- same for any of the non-1000 that's participating in Bitcoin. It's not apples to 747s as far as their money goes.

Which means Bitcoin proponents should really save the store-of-value label for later on down the road when it looks and behaves more like a store-of-value.

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by avar on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:06AM (#15879087)

    > The top 1000 holders of gold
    > don't have anywhere near 40%
    > of the market.
You're right, they have a lot more than that. Total world gold reserves are around 30K tons. The US alone has 8K tons, Germany 3K, IMF 3K, Italy 2.5K etc.

So just the to 2 holders of Gold have almost 40% of the market, and the top 10 have 80%.

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by specialp on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:32AM (#15879330)
I guess you didn't read the article you posted as evidence. In that article it says all the gold ever mined is 187,200 tons. Percentage of reserves != percentage of gold market. That would have the USA at ~5% and that is a country of 300+ million people. This is a lot different than 1000 individuals.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by avar on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:56AM (#15879537)
In the context of this discussion, which is gold holders hypothetically pumping & dumping the market it's pretty much only the big reserve holders that matter.

How do you think someone who's gold holdings are 1 kg in a warehouse embedded in motherboards is going to extract that to dump it on the market? Most gold by weight is effectively illiquid, while every Bitcoin is equally liquid.

As the source the article uses[1] discusses the breakdown of those 187,200 tons is:

* Jewellery: 89,200 tonnes, 47.6%

* Private investment: 40,000 tonnes, 21.4%

* Official sector: 31,500 tonnes, 16.8%

* Other: 26,500 tonnes, 14.2%

* Below ground stocks: 57,000 tonnes

So around 50% of the number you're quoting is gold still in the ground. To repeat your snarky remark: Did you read the article?

I guess counting the official sector and private investment the top 10 official holders "only" have around 30% of the liquid market, which is way more distorted than Bitcoin, and very comparable in this context of a few owners of large liquid assets being able to distort the market.

1. https://www.gold.org/about-gold/gold-supply/gold-mining/how-...

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by pc86 on Friday December 08, 2017 @11:34AM (#15879886)
> it's pretty much only the big reserve holders that matter

We're talking about the entire BTC ecosystem. You can't compare that to a 16% sliver of the entire gold market because that fits your argument better.

> Most gold by weight is effectively illiquid, while every Bitcoin is equally liquid.

Which was basically my point, is that BTC-to-gold is an apples-to-airliners comparison and is at best a strained analogy.

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by specialp on Friday December 08, 2017 @03:42PM (#15881865)
If you add up all those numbers you just gave besides the gold in the ground one, they add to exactly 187200. So no that is not gold in the ground. That is the estimated gold existing that has been mined. You may be reading the articles but not getting the right thing from them. Also gold in the ground does not count as being in the market because well it is still not mined, it is just known to exist.

Also you omitted the direct quote "Total above ground stocks: 187,200 tonnes" from the site you posted. So no that does not include gold that has not been mined.

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by icebraining on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:38AM (#15878845)
Who said anything about a small amount?
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by FLUX-YOU on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:39AM (#15878857)
The article that I quoted.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by icebraining on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:04AM (#15879065)
Nope, it said "portion". It didn't say the size of said portion.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by FLUX-YOU on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:13AM (#15879151)
I don't think replacing "small amount" to "portion" in my posts really changes the point -- that a small amount (relative to the population of Bitcoin investors) of large players (by USD value) can influence the market price.

If you want to argue a minimum amount that whales would need to sell to manipulate the markets, that's probably better for the thread than arguing about semantics.

Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by yellowstuff on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:36AM (#15878832)
Buying any asset pushes the price up and selling pushes the price down. It's a matter of sensitivity. The Chinese government could probably push down the price of USD a few percent by announcing a policy change today, but one guy could potentially push Bitcoin prices down significantly with a keystroke.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by tfha on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:38AM (#15878847)
At great cost to himself. Dumping coins like that is not free, you pay a huge price due to slippage.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by christopheml on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:43AM (#15878885)
Interestingly enough, that's how Société Générale lost huge amounts of money following the discovery of Jerôme Kerviel's misbehavior. They recklessly closed their positions, shooting themselves in the foot in the process.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by dazmax on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:28AM (#15879291)
But now they could also own put options.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by kazen44 on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:32AM (#15878798)
the major difference between fiat and bitcoin in this case seems to be that the whales in case of fiat currency are either the central banks (like the FED and ECB) or large international banks who own a lot of currency?
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by empath75 on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:32AM (#15878804)
in the case of diamonds, it's deBeers.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by charlesdm on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:35AM (#15878828)
Used to be. Don't think they have the power over the market they used to have.
Re:The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of th... by inglondon on Friday December 08, 2017 @09:38AM (#15878849)
There is also no derivatives market for diamonds