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Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by rebuilder on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @12:16AM (#15858728)
Bitcoin's energy usage is getting a lot of press of late. Deservedly, I think - it is a bit ludicrous. None of the articles I've seen really manage to get at the economics of mining, or what's likely to happen in the future, though. A Big Think article projected that by 2020, at the current growth rate, Bitcoin will use as much power as is generated globally today. Obviously that's not going to happen, something will give and that something is likely to be Bitcoin's price.

But even though the articles I've seen are pretty fluffy, they probably stem from an underlying issue that makes Bitcoin different from traditional, energy-heavy industry: The value produced is not directly connected to the energy expended in production. Bitcoin would work just as well with a small fraction of the hashpower it has today. Security is an issue, but surely it must be over-secured many times over at the moment.

Unfortunately no mechanism seems to exist to balance security vs cost, except for the crash-boom market cycle Bitcoin constantly goes through. How much hashpower is needed? The question is moot as there is no way to moderate it, and I'm starting to think that may be Bitcoin's biggest design flaw. (Market forces will certainly bring the energy cost of mining down one way or the other, but it's not clear how much damage will be done to Bitcoin in the process.)

Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by trophycase on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @12:24AM (#15858747)
You can't really extrapolate the current growth rate. There is a maximum total mining revenue even if Bitcoin becomes the only globally used currency. The electricity usage likely won't exceed this unless miners begin to sell heat and displace traditional heat generation sources.
Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by hossbeast on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @01:14AM (#15858961)
"There is a maximum total mining revenue even if Bitcoin becomes the only globally used currency.".

How are you coming to this conclusion? In addition to the coinbase, miners earn fees, which are valued according to current market conditions (supply and demand)

Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by cwkoss on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @07:07PM (#15866352)
At current growth rate Bitcoins will each be worth over $1M by 2018. This would imply being worth 3x all of the gold ever mined.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/7hvj8e/dail...

If Bitcoin becomes the most valuable asset class in the world by two orders of magnitude (in 2020, assuming same rate), lots of crazy other side effect will occur.

Bitcoin isn't going to keep growing this fast. It'll go parabolic for a while, and then settle at a midpoint between where the rally began and where it peaked.

Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by zby on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @01:08AM (#15858936)
I think bitcoin will eventually be replaced by a PoS coin: https://medium.com/@zby/proof-of-stake-can-be-cheaper-than-p...
Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by Frogolocalypse on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @05:17AM (#15859965)
I think that only people who don't understand that PoS can't be done trustlessly, and don't understand why that is an issue, say that.
Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by Frogolocalypse on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @01:07AM (#15858929)
This seems to be the latest meme for why bitcoin can't work. The reality is that bitcoin uses as much power as it does because it is sought after at the current energy cost. If it is important to you, increase the energy cost. Bitcoin already has a fee market, and incentivized miners. If it is no longer economically feasible to mine at the current price because of energy prices, miners will cease mining until it is economically feasible again.

Bitcoin isn't to blame for cheap energy. If it is too cheap, take it up with the people selling it at that price.

Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by modeless on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @12:31AM (#15858778)
> Unfortunately no mechanism seems to exist to balance security vs cost

Bitcoin does include a perfectly good mechanism to balance security vs cost: the transaction fee market. Users decide how much they want to pay in transaction fees.

The reason for the high electricity use today is the temporary block reward for mining each block. The block reward halves every three years. Once it goes away, the only thing funding Bitcoin's electricity consumption will be the transaction fees users pay. Obviously if Bitcoin does not provide enough value to users, they will not pay high fees. Electricity consumption will naturally go down to a level that matches the value people get out of the network.

Remember this next time you see an article complaining about Bitcoin's electricity use. I haven't seen a single article about this written by somebody who understands the difference between the block reward and the transaction fee market.

Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by rebuilder on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @12:47AM (#15858846)
Users are not paying for security, they are paying for having their transaction processed. In fact, I don't see that users have any way to measure the security of the network granularly: if secure, everything works. If not, systemwide chaos ensues.
Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by modeless on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @01:24AM (#15859014)
The security of the network can be measured by any user. Multiply the mining difficulty by the efficiency of mining hardware and the price of electricity and divide by 2; this is the cost of running a 51% attack.

The beauty of the mining mechanism is that having transactions processed provides security at the same time. As long as users see value in having transactions processed they will be willing to fund miners with transaction fees.

However, you're right that users aren't paying for security directly. The fee market may not actually give miners enough revenue to ensure network security. When the block reward goes away electricity consumption will certainly drop (relative to transaction volume), but it may even drop too far to the point where the network is no longer secure from 51% attacks.

Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by TheDong on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @12:44AM (#15858828)
Mining is required for more than just the fees or the block reward.

Even if fees were zero and block rewards didn't exist, people who had bitcoin would mine so that no one else could mine and trivially double-spend (and thus devalue their bitcoin).

The value of mining is based in no small part on how valuable bitcoin are since mining is what preserves that value by preventing attackers from destroying it.

What's worse, the needed amount of electricity to secure an amount of bitcoins is relative to how much energy an attacker can expend, not some constant value which will remain low.

Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by sliverstorm on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @12:41AM (#15858818)
The final block will be mined in 2140, so we're not quite to the transaction-fee-only point yet.
Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by modeless on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @12:46AM (#15858838)
The block reward in the final blocks will be 1 satoshi (1/100000000 of a bitcoin). The block reward will be completely irrelevant many years before that. We don't have to wait until 2040 for the fee market to overtake the block reward.
Re:Bitcoin could cost us our clean-energy future by mrb on Wednesday December 06, 2017 @01:08AM (#15858935)
«Bitcoin's energy usage is getting a lot of press of late. Deservedly, I think - it is a bit ludicrous.»

Completely undeserved IMHO. Vastly more energy is wasted by sillier things. For example worldwide Christmas decorative lights consume 2.3 GW annually (assuming it's 3× the US), which is a lot more than Bitcoin (I estimate ~1.7 GW: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15858966) and yet I don't see nearly as many news article criticizing Christmas lights for using so much electricity... Hence why the criticism is undeserved/unfair. If we can afford to power silly feel-good lights, surely we can afford to power a revolutionary decentralized permissionless censorship-resistant financial network.

Don't forget that one of the sources cited—Digiconomist—overestimates consumption by ~2×: http://blog.zorinaq.com/serious-faults-in-beci/