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Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by neom on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:11PM (#15808556)
Curious to know how long folks here think it will be till we see AVs rolling around cities in America? I'm (literally) banking on less than 5 years, but curious what others think.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by mikeash on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:34PM (#15808872)
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by anthonybsd on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:19PM (#15808664)
I think there's no chance we'll see them everywhere in less than 20 years. Right now they don't even do great in sandbox-controlled places with constant climate like Phoenix, AZ.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by soared on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:47PM (#15809021)
Source?
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by anthonybsd on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @01:39PM (#15809512)
https://www.wired.com/2017/02/self-driving-cars-cant-even-co...

Every major city has construction zones. Right now this is a no-go for self-driving cars.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by neom on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @01:47PM (#15809578)
w00t! Thankfully that's the point of my startup, city can tell car about stuff in advance of stuff happening (construction, 911, etc)
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by jacquesm on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @02:08PM (#15809782)
Why would they? Traffic signs and sensors should be all you need to navigate in traffic. If it takes some service to keep you safe then suddenly traffic is as safe as that service is reliable.

And lots of this stuff is reactive or generated on the spot and the city will have no knowledge of it.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by dragonwriter on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @02:21PM (#15809930)
Even when the safety issues are resolved to the point where self-driving cars are at least as safe as humans in construction zones, they may be less safe than the same cars are elsewhere, and it may be a benefit to safety both to use self driving cars without an advance notice system and to use advance notice when available.

OTOH, even if it becomes a safety non-issue, advance knowledge of construction, 911 responses in progress, and other events on the potential routes can be useful to route planning in computer navigation systems whether or not they are used in self-driving vehicles.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by ghaff on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @02:28PM (#15810014)
Urs Holzle of Google said the following at Structure a couple weeks back: "You don't want to have a self-driving car that depends on an uplink for its driving ability. Vehicle to vehicle communication has to be a plus not a required."

As with detailed maps, other types of information would probably improve the overall safety and reliability of an autonomous vehicle. But, at some level, it needs to be able to drive on its own based on the environment it can directly sense.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by dragonwriter on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @04:17PM (#15810942)
That's basically what I was saying uphtread; self-driving cars need to get safe enough in all conditions to replace humans without relying on data broadcasts, but once they reach that point data broadcasts that allow them to identify and avoid situations that are relatively more dangerous and/or improve routing based on dynamic conditions still can have a valuable role.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by neom on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @02:13PM (#15809836)
Your utopia sounds wonderful. However, that's not how bureaucracy and public safety work.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by jacquesm on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @02:16PM (#15809869)
I think you have that backwards.

Bureaucracy and public safety are mis-aligned to the point where a service relying on bureaucracy with a direct impact on public safety is going to be an uphill battle.

It also comes with some very interesting liability issues, such as: if the input data to that service is faulty and you then broadcast it to a bunch of AVs which react to it leading to an accident where would you assign blame?

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by wil421 on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:24PM (#15808740)
To me autonomous vehicle means the car can drive me from point A to point B in any weather condition a normal person would drive in. I doubt it will be 5 years.

If your are talking about a lower level of AV then I would expect some cool stuff in 5 years.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by alistairSH on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:46PM (#15809012)
Agreed. I believe the jump from "fantastic driver's aid" to "fully autonomous" in the consumer auto market will take a decade or more.

And even when there are true AVs available, adoption won't come without some pains and legal changes. If my AV runs over a pedestrian, who is at fault?

I hope we see AVs available for limited uses in the 5 year time-frame. Possibly limited to restricted areas and designated roadways. Or, maybe faster adoption in the commercial space, as there are potentially huge cost savings for shipping/transport companies.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by Kluny on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:43PM (#15808988)
I'd be totally satisfied with just an advanced cruise control for highways that gets you within a kilometer of your exit before handing back control.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by esmi on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @03:42PM (#15810643)
In daylight and dry weather. As a CA resident this would allow the AI to take over the vast majority of the miles I drive throughout the year.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by saas_co_de on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @02:24PM (#15809973)
They will be there but they won't be autonomous. Not now, probably not ever.

They will be remote monitored and remote controllable.

Instead of having a driver per car you will have a team in some control center that monitors all the driverless cars and can take over if any get into trouble.

Full autonomous is a pipe-dream, but cars are a symbol of freedom in America, and just the idea of giving up control to a computer is enough to put off most people.

If people knew that autonomous cars will require giving full remote control to a corporation or government agency the idea would be dead in the water, so this part is kept in the fine print.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by zjaffee on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @03:39PM (#15810617)
The aspect of freedom derived from cars is based on ones ability to get themselves from where they live to the point of destination at anytime, no matter where that location may exist. Self driving cars only increase the degree at which that freedom operates, as they will always be able to let you out at your final destination as you will no longer have to spend 30 minutes finding parking as is the case in many cities today.

Yes, people will be skeptical of shared self driving cars, but to suggest the problem is the self driving aspect seems a bit off.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by bird788 on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @06:17PM (#15811812)
>The aspect of freedom derived from cars is based on ones ability to get themselves from where they live to the point of destination at anytime, no matter where that location may exist.

Not necessarily. Part of the freedom is that you don't have to have a destination in mind. You can simply drive to wherever you want, whenever; you can explore. This also does not mention issues about surveillance, corporate control, privacy, etc.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by saas_co_de on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @06:31PM (#15811898)
You are thinking of things only from a utilitarian perspective, not an emotional and psychological perspective.

Driving provides a very real sense of freedom and power to people that they may not find in many other aspects of their life.

Most people will also remember being teenagers and having their parents controlling the keys.

Autonomous cars are like going back to being a teenager except now the government or some corporation owns the keys and tells you what is allowed.

Tech people don't always think about these things but they will have a major impact on how the technology is adopted or not adopted.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by zjaffee on Friday December 01, 2017 @04:54PM (#15827937)
Personally speaking I feel very different as I grew up in NYC but then later moved to the suburbs during high school. In NYC, a 6th grader has the same level of freedom that you only have once you get your license in the suburbs, and it's very possible that with the advent of self driving cars that such freedom will later exist in the suburbs.

Additionally, I just think we'll have to see about that later part. For me the freedom is freedom of transport, the cars are just an expression of that.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by pgodzin on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:32PM (#15808852)
For ownership purposes closer to 10-15, but on-demand where the car can decline certain routes it is unconfident in, 5 is definitely reasonable
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by harrisjt on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @01:09PM (#15809221)
Do they work in icy or snow related low visibility conditions? I'm living in Wisconsin so they would have to tick both boxes for me to consider.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by mabbo on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @02:26PM (#15809996)
Waymo has them launched in Arizona already.

So, -1 months?

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by randomdata on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @03:27PM (#15810534)
More like they expanded their testing in Arizona. They are not commercially available.

And if we are counting test vehicles, they have been rolling around American cities for decades.

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by bluGill on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @01:17PM (#15809308)
I hope soon - I have better things to do with my commute time than stare at the road.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by w0m on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:57PM (#15809109)
I see it every day actually; though i'm in a dev-city.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by roel_v on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @12:56PM (#15809102)
"(literally) banking"

How?

Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by neom on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @01:48PM (#15809590)
My startup builds city infrastructure that allows them to define certain things via API, AV regulation will likley be one of those things.
Re:G.M. Unveils Its Driverless Cars, Aiming to Lead the Pack by wolfram74 on Wednesday November 29, 2017 @01:27PM (#15809380)
Might be putting off buying a (new) car with hopes of ride-share networks being price competitive. That's what I'm doing.