Re:The chance of a Bitcoin crash is greater than 80%
by lucozade on Tuesday November 28, 2017 @01:38PM
(#15800054)
> BTC isn't an asset
Sure it is. But that's not what makes this analysis a bit silly.
The problem is he's comparing Bitcoin to shares on regulated exchanges. And it's not subject to the same constraints as shares on regulated exchanges so it doesn't follow that it will have the dynamics of said shares.
He ever points out that it's already priced way beyond what you'd reasonably expect if it was a regulated share.
So sure it's likely to fall at some point and maybe it'll crash. But until it's controlled like a regulated asset it's just odd to assume it'll behave like one.
Sure it is. But that's not what makes this analysis a bit silly.
The problem is he's comparing Bitcoin to shares on regulated exchanges. And it's not subject to the same constraints as shares on regulated exchanges so it doesn't follow that it will have the dynamics of said shares.
He ever points out that it's already priced way beyond what you'd reasonably expect if it was a regulated share.
So sure it's likely to fall at some point and maybe it'll crash. But until it's controlled like a regulated asset it's just odd to assume it'll behave like one.