You point out the key factor now: channels are opening for institutional flows to force their way into crypto currency now. Most ‘casuals’ have no sense for the scale of buying that investor flows create. They are hugely impactful on markets as sophisticated and deep as commodities. In comparison, crypto currencies are a flyspeck.

I’m not saying it’s not a bubble because institutional money wants to buy it. But I am saying that having any view on how expensive bitcoin can become based on what it’s done during the time it was mostly enthusiast and ‘the fringe’ were the main buyers is naive.

My view is that the largest impediment to institutional money is the horrific custodianship issues of bitcoin. State Actors and Super-Criminals are attacking this constantly to steal your money. That risk is minuscule in regular financial markets (because banking system has lots of protections against it).

> BTC isn't an asset

Sure it is. But that's not what makes this analysis a bit silly.

The problem is he's comparing Bitcoin to shares on regulated exchanges. And it's not subject to the same constraints as shares on regulated exchanges so it doesn't follow that it will have the dynamics of said shares.

He ever points out that it's already priced way beyond what you'd reasonably expect if it was a regulated share.

So sure it's likely to fall at some point and maybe it'll crash. But until it's controlled like a regulated asset it's just odd to assume it'll behave like one.

Strictly speaking, stocks are a piece of paper. What makes the stock market behave as it does is the way people treat the stock. Similarly, the way people treat Bitcoin is as an asset with very, very high liquidity.