In theory yes however you're assuming that there's no collateral impact from a store closing and that there are alternatives.

Large retail chains are often anchor stores that sustain retail centers. When they shut down the economy of the retail center collapses. This impact spreads beyond the retail centers to surrounding businesses. The reduced retail traffic means that fewer people are stopping for lunch at restaurants, fueling up at gas stations, picking up prescriptions at Pharmacies, dropping off dry cleaning, etc. As a result these businesses are forced to cut back on staffing and possibly reduce hours. This causes further declines in business as the quality of service decreases. Eventually many of these business are forced to go under.

The abandoned retail centers also impact property values in surrounding areas and result in increased crime rates.

This process isn't immediate and the works displaced do not immediately find new employment. Thus you have a period where these workers are either without jobs or facing ever reducing hours which results in less disposable income.

In large urban centers you might have a dozen or more retail centers to chose from within a short distance from your home but in rural ares you're lucky if you have more than one.

In a lot of rural America you'll find many communities surrounding a Walmart often on the outskirts of a dried up husk of a town. In the 80s and 90s Walmart built supercenters just outside of the jurisdiction of small towns. The retailers in these towns couldn't compete on price and eventually folded. The small shops that didn't directly compete with Walmart (e.g. nail salons, shoe repair) eventually would end up leasing space inside the Walmart.

The failure of a major company that's over leveraged does not mean each location also closes.

What's being described is a company who's operations are profitable, that simply has excessive debt. In that case the operations can be sold in bankruptcy to recover whatever money is possible with the buyer assuming operations.

What kills malls is when an Anchor store is unprofitable.

Unless store closings have higher order effects, like making it difficult to finance the operations of the stores that don't close.

Not to mention the network effects. If half the stores in a mall close with no new ones opening, that whole mall is going to go under, and it's going to damage all the stores in the process.

Plus everyone who worked at those closed stores is now out of a job.

plus everyone who serviced those stores has just lost a market. All that HR software you sale, all the consultants, all the property owners, all the insurance people, the janitorial and other support staff...

to take your statement a step further than just retail, I'll say that the entire economy is effectively largely dependent on people spending money. Which is why trickle-down economics has been not working at all for at least a few decades and yet somehow this is still the resoning for tax plans.

the idea being that the 1% who has 90% of the country's wealth needs a little more to create jobs (from thin air)

whereas the truth is that people spending money is what will create jobs

it's such a shame

"Trickle down" has never made any sense to me. Maybe it's different at big companies, but at small ones 100% of the hiring I've observed goes something like this: "uh oh, we have[1] more business coming in than we can handle, better hire!". Never, ever "welp, we have extra cash, better hire for... uh, some reason". Extra money without an actual need to hire more workers might go into marketing or sales, but only to a (lowish) point.

[1] Usually "we have", but sometimes "we anticipate".

It makes more sense if you're one of the oligarchs. I mean, not the logic of the argument, but the reasons for supporting it ;)

Do you still shop in brick and mortar stores? Other than food (groceries and restaurants) and sometimes clothing, I haven't shopped in a brick and mortar store in so long that I can't even remember when was the last time. It's just so easy to buy things online, even small one off purchases. The other day I needed some AAA batteries so I just hopped on Amazon and ordered them and they showed up a day later. I probably could have used Prime Now to get them within hours if I really needed them right then. That is so much simpler than traveling to a store and back to pick up anything. I'm really not sure how most brick and mortar stores will stay in business.

Yes, but I live less than two blocks away from two stores that factor into my lifestyle: ACE Hardware (i own a house and can do a lot of the maintenance on my own), and a local pet supplies store (1 dog, 1 cat).

Yes, i definitely pay a premium for purchases I make at each one of these. But it’s not an astronomical amount, and it makes more sense if you think about these kind of stores as local warehouses.

Why don’t I just have a 70lb bag of dog food delivered every n days? Idk, I don’t want to have to think about the dog food until I have to think about the dog food. If dog food shows up when I’m out of town, or there’s actually a weeks worth of food left because Externalities, now I have an extra dog food storage problem.

Recently I was tempted to buy a fancy tool but when I picked one up at a store I realized the handle didn't fit my hand at all. Talking over alternatives with an experienced seller was helpful. Retail has an important future even though it will be smaller and more focused.

Most of the time smaller items like AAA are more expensive online than say Lowe’s, Walmart, or Costco. For me I will always choose the cheaper option which has been brick and mortor.

I will never order groceries. Picking my meat and fresh produce is something I will never outsource. Especially if it is more expensive.

I order online because it is usually cheaper for electronic accessories and books.

I still make a ton of brick and mortar purchases. I’m one block away from a drugstore, where I get things like batteries, bathroom needs, and lighters. Three blocks away from both Trader Joe's, equally close to the weekly farmer's market.

But I also live in an actual city instead of an endless sea of suburban houses.

I have never been a big shopper, but I find I do a 50/50 split. I also tend to buy gifts at physical stores so I can get ideas and know I have them in my hand. I also like stores when details matter like furniture or luggage.

If anything I am doing less online shopping over time as I keep getting burned. Though I also lived next door to a mall for years which changed my habits somewhat.

competing anecdata: if i just needed some batteries, i wouldn't use amazon for that. i already get too many boxes from them, which accumulate as unwanted guests in every corner of my house, so i try to consolidate small orders. and there is some additional friction there: making sure all my orders have been delivered, not allowing boxes to hang out on the porch too long in case they might get stolen, etc.

far more likely, i'll just put the batteries on my shopping list for the next time i am at the grocery.

As awesome as the 1-click button is for getting products to your door, box fatigue is a real thing. Lately I just add products to my cart until one of those additions become pressing, then I review my cart and purchase. Half the items in there I wind up relegating to the "Save for Later" list.

Honestly, it also provides the thrill of impulse shopping without the guilt or monetary expense. Most of the "save for later" items never get ordered, or I realize they're part of a bigger project I need to make time for.

I even order all my food online. The only stuff we buy in physical stores are stuff we want now (“crap! I’m out of coffee”)

At what cost though. Boutique retail seems to be growing but at the cost of malls and large chains.

You might be able to satisfy our retail needs with 1/4 the staff.

Do you still see this as the likelihood if as predicted by many futurists that 40% of jobs are displaced completely by 2030, and no sort of safety net like guaranteed basic income instituted?

I personally think we're headed for a crash that's more than just a depression but something on a whole different level. Dependent of course on automation / job losses / politics between now and 2030.