Certain there will be a market cycle? Of course? Certain when it will happen? Hell no!

I'm fully in the market with zero intention of trying to time anything.

It will go down and back up. That much is certain. I'm ready to ride it out!

There is no cycle. It's a chaotic system, which is why "technical analysis" is a farce for fools. (A cycle implies a predictable periodicity, and there is none.)

Anyone can predict there will be an inevitable downturn in the future. In fact most people think there will be one for sure. it could be 10,20, or 100 years down the line.

But if you arent predicting when, your prediction isnt very credible.

> But if you arent predicting when, your prediction isnt very credible.

It is the exact opposite: if you are actually predicting "when", then your prediction isn't very credible. Perhaps you meant useful instead?

Anyways, all we can do is watch external forces. When will the Chinese asset bubble pop? When will the fed raise interest rates? If those things happen, will that take other markets down with it?

I would say it’s both (or neither): if you are always predicting disaster, then your predictions are neither useful nor credible, since you will be wrong most of the time as the long-term trend of the market is upward.

The chance of a crash sometime in the future is 100%. That is credible. Those predictions are completely credible for what most people take as credible, they just aren’t very useful. Markets that rise just because of inflation and population growth aren’t necessarily healthy in the long term. The current great consistent performance of index funds suggests something is up.