Re:Tech Stocks Roar Again in Faint Echo of 2000
by Analemma_ on Saturday October 28, 2017 @10:11PM
(#15577671)
I would say it’s both (or neither): if you are always predicting disaster, then your predictions are neither useful nor credible, since you will be wrong most of the time as the long-term trend of the market is upward.
Re:Tech Stocks Roar Again in Faint Echo of 2000
by seanmcdirmid on Sunday October 29, 2017 @01:16AM
(#15578057)
The chance of a crash sometime in the future is 100%. That is credible. Those predictions are completely credible for what most people take as credible, they just aren’t very useful. Markets that rise just because of inflation and population growth aren’t necessarily healthy in the long term. The current great consistent performance of index funds suggests something is up.
It is the exact opposite: if you are actually predicting "when", then your prediction isn't very credible. Perhaps you meant useful instead?
Anyways, all we can do is watch external forces. When will the Chinese asset bubble pop? When will the fed raise interest rates? If those things happen, will that take other markets down with it?